Donald Trump has signalled that the U.S. would help, a bit, in “security guarantees” as part of a land for peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. And Kyiv would need it – the land the Kremlin wants is Ukraine’s best laid defence.
Handing a vast chunk of the Donetsk Oblast province to Russia when Moscow currently controls about 70 per cent – would hand Vladimir Putin some of Ukraine’s finest redoubts and most doubty defenders.
It would include thousands of miles of pre-prepared trenches, tank traps that snake across the rolling landscape, pre-prepared ambush positions – a modern Maginot Line.
Britain’s ministry of defence has estimated that it would take Russia “4.4 years” and nearly two million casualties to take the four provinces it has claimed.
An agreement to freeze the frontline where they are, but for Russia to settle for the land it has taken plus the Donetsk bonus, will probably save them a couple of years fighting. If the battle for Bakhmut is an indication of how hard won Russian advances are then a pause in the killing is a huge result for Putin who has lost 60,000 there.
Kramatorsk would be a harder fight. So would nearby Slaviansk. Hundreds of thousands of Russians would die in fights for those fortress cities. Slaviansk was hit by missiles last night, but knowing its residents, they’d fight invading Russians with broomsticks if they have to.
But if Trump can get Ukraine to agree to hand over the land – then Putin saves men and arms to reuse another day.
He broke away from talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, the leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Finland plus the top representatives of Nato and the EU, to call Putin during their multilateral summit on Monday evening.
Trump spent much of this year trying to get a ceasefire agreed in Ukraine. He showed uncharacteristic irritation with Russia’s maximalist demands and over Putin’s refusal to respect calls to down weapons, even for a breather.
Trump threatened economic sanctions, and sanctioned India, the second biggest importer of Russian oil, in an effort to get the Russian leader to comply. Putin, an indicted war criminal, got a trip to Alaska and a summit with the U.S. president where he persuaded Trump that a ceasefire wasn’t necessary.
He also managed to shift the debate about the future of Ukraine to “land swaps” and discussions about what bits of its land Ukraine would surrender in return for vague Trumpian commitments to “security guarantees”.
This makes no sense. Ukraine was invaded. Europe’s leaders each made it clear they backed Ukraine, wanted a ceasefire before any further talks, and that they would buy the weapons America has stopped giving to Ukraine.
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine had offered Trump a European funded $100 billion arms deal as part of a pact.
Trump has every incentive to hold Putin’s feet to a fire and demand he get out of Ukraine – or burn.
