Trump claims ‘present’ related to Strait of Hormuz; Australia petrol prices soar amid fuel shortage; Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif proposes US-Iran dialogue

Push for negotiations

Since launching the war alongside Israel on February 28, Trump has given shifting and often vague objectives, and those mixed messages were on display in recent days.

He has talked of degrading or destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, and its ability to threaten neighbours – goals that he has some flexibility in declaring accomplished.

A much tougher goal is ensuring Iran can never build a nuclear weapon, and Trump has insisted that will be part of any deal.

Who speaks for Iran in any talks?

Iran’s leadership appears to have remained relatively cohesive, despite weeks of heavy bombardment and the killing of its supreme leader and many top-ranking military figures.

But who actually is in charge is not known. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn’t been seen or directly heard from since he was named to replace his slain father, Ali Khamenei.

It’s not certain anyone entering talks with the US would have backing from the military or Guard. In the ongoing war, Iran’s military has conducted strikes based on orders of local commanders, rather than from any political leadership.

Was Trump just trying to buy time?

Trump’s sudden declaration of progress in talks on Monday came just as the deadline was about to run out on an ultimatum he had made over the weekend threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country releases its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened to retaliate against power, water and oil infrastructure across the Gulf.

Trump on Monday pushed the deadline back five days and said there’s a “very good chance” a deal could be reached this week. That was a relief to global oil and stock markets.

What about Israel?

Notably, Israel is not involved in the move for negotiations.

Israel has depicted itself as following Trump’s lead, and it seems unlikely to continue with its strikes on Iran if the US declared an end to the war. Still, it has pursued its own war aims beyond the Americans’. Its bombing last week of Iran’s offshore South Pars natural gas field triggered intensified Iranian attacks on the Gulf Arab states, and Trump told Israel to halt such attacks.