Trump’s favorite words set to win traders millions tonight – including 8-letter zinger that’s runaway favorite
Donald Trump’s State of the Union address is the Super Bowl of the year for political prediction market traders, with millions of dollars at stake.
Over $4 million is being thrown around ahead of what the President is anticipated say during his anticipated congressional address on the regulated exchange and prediction market site Kalshi.
Forecasts indicate that there is a 93 percent likelihood Trump will say ‘250’ and his eight-letter favorite: ‘Trillion.’ Trump’s speech is expected to focus on affordability and the economy, according to multiple reports.
Both terms reference the upcoming 250th anniversary of the United States and the economic growth Trump frequently touts.
Traders are less confident that Trump will give a nod to crypto, with ‘Bitcoin’ and ‘Ethereum’ ranking among the least likely terms he is expected to mention.
The odds on Kalshi also offer a snapshot of the issues dominating the political news cycle.
For example, traders assign an 88 percent chance that Trump will mention ICE, compared to just a 23 percent chance he will talk about the Department of Government Efficiency, suggesting immigration enforcement is far more top of mind than government spending.
Other Kalshi markets tied to Trump’s upcoming speech also saw a spike in activity.
With more than $3.3 million wagered, traders now put the odds of Barron Trump attending at 58 percent, a sharp 19-point jump in the past 24 hours.
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem have a 97 percent certainty of attending, according to traders.
There is also money to be made by correctly predicting how long Trump’s speech will last.
Over $4 million is being thrown around Kalshi for what the President will say during his anticipated Congressional address
Traders are hedging their bets to focus on what the president will say and how long his speech will last
Trump’s address to lawmakers will almost certainly become the largest ‘mention’ market in the platform’s history once all the bets are tallied
Bettors see one hour or longer as the safest play, while the odds of the speech stretching to nearly two hours are less certain, sitting at just 38 percent.
The duration market of the speech has less volume with only approximately $100,000 in total bets.
Kalshi routinely launches weekly markets whenever Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech or hold a press conference.
However, Tuesday’s address to lawmakers will almost certainly become the largest ‘mention’ market in the platform’s history once all the bets are in.
‘Mention’ markets revolving around the President are one of the fastest-growing categories on the prediction site.
In January of 2025, mention markets reached $128k in volume. In January of 2026, they surged to $155 million in total bets.
Other notable markets surging in anticipation for Trump’s speech also include countries the President will mention on Tuesday.
Kalshi routinely launches weekly markets whenever Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech or hold a press conference
China and Venezuela top the list at 96 percent certainty, followed closely by Iran, as the looming threat of military strikes makes it almost certain that Trump will address the issue.
Jeffrey Epstein’s island and Little Saint James sit at the bottom of Kalshi’s list. Traders wisely predict Trump will avoid these terms because he has largely avoided mentioning the disgraced financier in recent remarks.
