Death of Ebrahim Raïssi: "The situation will not fundamentally change in Iran"explains a historian
“The situation is not going to fundamentally change in Iran,” explained Monday May 20 on franceinfo Jonathan Piron, historian and political scientist specializing in Iran, while Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi died in a helicopter accident. In a press release published a few hours after the news, the government assured that his death would not lead to “the slightest disturbance in the administration” from the country.
“The real holder of power in Iran is not the President of the Republic, it is the guide of the Revolution, Ali Khamenei, who is still in place. The President of the Republic in Iran does not is ultimately that a Prime Minister is an executive., he explained. The First Vice-President, Mohammad Mokhber, will temporarily take the place of Ebrahim Raïssi before an upcoming presidential election. According to Jonathan Piron, the political sequence which is opening “asks a lot of questions” about the way which “the different ultra-conservative factions which now dominate Iran will begin to fight to try to recover the post of President of the Republic”he explained.
The ultra-conservatives dominate the political game in Iran. Future presidential elections “are not going to be an open game in which moderates in particular could be present, but it is the conservatives and the radicals who will in fact still enter into a struggle to occupy power”, he assures. The name of Ebrahim Raïssi was presented as a potential successor to Guide Ali Khamenei, now 84 years old: “The game is decided behind the scenes and in particular among the most radical, those who are close to the current guide and also close to the body of the Revolutionary Guards”he explained.
According to Jonathan Piron, it is enough to analyze the results of the legislative elections and the Assembly of Experts last March, with a historically low participation rate, to understand that the Iranian regime is very unpopular. “President Raïssi was very unpopular for his repressive side, but also for his inability to get the country out of the economic and social slump in which it found itself”, underlined the historian. Her death should not revive the “Woman, Life, Liberty” movement, according to him. “The population is exhausted by the social and economic situation and by brutalization” power, he said. “In the short term, it will probably not revive the demonstration since we are in a political cycle with which the population has real disillusionment,” he explained.
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