‘IF’ Lighter At $30M+, ‘Strangers: Chapter 1’ Stronger At $12M, ‘Back To Black’ Goes Belly-Up At $3M – Saturday Box Office Update

SATURDAY AM EARLY: IF is looking at $30.5M opening this weekend after a $10M Friday + previews, at 4,041 theaters and while that might scream lower than expected on the surface since it’s below its $40M projections, triple note, it’s a PG-rated live-action film. There’s a reason why they haven’t been greenlit in a while, and let’s not slam Paramount and John Krasinsksi for swinging for the fences on original content. Here’s the upside: with an A CinemaScore, this family movie is bound to leg out and fill a niche in the summer despite 50% Rotten reviews. That’s just what family movies do. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 85% fresh. At that starting point, IF‘s opening is just north of Ryan Reynold’s Free Guy ($28.3M), a previous piece of original IP for the actor. That PG-13 movie cleared $121.6M back in the late summer/early fall of 2021.

Meanwhile, coming in ahead of projections substantially is Lionsgate’s reboot, The Strangers – Chapter 1 with $12.3M after a $5M Friday + previews in third. That opening is a step up from the previous installment, 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night which debuted to $10.4M from embattled distributor Aviron. Clearly there’s a fan appetite here and good on Lionsgate for overindexing on this $8.5M production. CinemaScore is a C, which is average for a horror movie, but RT audience is 42%.

Again, the more big films, the more of a rhythm moviegoing find this summer. 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is seeing a second weekend between $23.5M-$25M in second, a -60% to a -57% decline. War for the Planet of the Apes posted a -63% second weekend with $20.8M, so a good hold here on the Wes Ball directed sequel. On the high end, that gets Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to $100.4M, Disney’s first century mark grossing title of 2024. At 4,075 theaters, Apes still has the Imax screens versus IF which has PLFs.

Universal’s The Fall Guy at 3,845 theaters is eyeing a $2.25M third Friday for an $8M third weekend, -42%, for a running total of $62.5M. BTW, $8M was the same amount of money that David Leitch’s Bullet Train made in its third weekend. However, Fall Guy in its running cume is falling -9% behind Bullet Train.

And, wow, OMG, Focus Features’ Back to Black isn’t finding any kind of audience at a $3M opening after a $1.25M Friday in 2,010 locations. It’s not like the audiences stateside didn’t like it: It’s getting a B+ CinemaScore and 80% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. This movie, which British critics eviscerated is not getting a fair shake, with bad word of mouth crossing the Atlantic. Back to Black was bullied on social media for myriad reasons: many didn’t like Marisa Abela’s performance and look early on (sorry, shoot me, but she’s sublime in the movie), and that 13 years was too soon to make a biopic about the tragic performer. Also, some have sniped that the whole IP isn’t cross-generational enough ala Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody to make a dent stateside and that the movie is too British for yanks. UK music critics have taken umbrage with some of the creative licenses that the biopic has pulled off. Pity. It’s a really good movie and the scene where Winehouse meets Jack O’Connell’s Blake for the first time is wonderfully romantic.

FRIDAY AM: John Krasinski’s imaginary friend feature IF made $1.75 million in Thursday night previews that began at 5 p.m. It’s been awhile since we had a live-action PG-rated feature, so comps are tough. The outlook heading into the weekend is $40M. The top opening for an original live-action PG film was Hop at $37.5M in 2011.

Reviews are challenged at 51% Rotten, but there’s a better-than-anticipated audience reaction, I understand. If you need comps, well, the live-action/toon hybrid IF is close to Zootopia‘s $1.7M previews in 2016 and The Boss Baby‘s $1.5M in 2017 — but those were fully animated movies.

Lionsgate’s horror reboot The Strangers: Chapter 1 drew $1.2M from previews that began at 6 p.m. as well. Booked in 2,856 North American locations, tracking shows $7M-$9M for the $8.5M-budgeted movie from Renny Harlin about a young couple (Madelaine Petsch and Froy Gutierrez) whose car breaks down in a spooky town. RT critics are low at 19%.

RELATED: ‘Back To Black’ Trailer: Marisa Abela Is Amy Winehouse In Sam Taylor-Johnson’s Musical Biopic

Focus Features has StudioCanal’s Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black. The film is expected to open with just $4M-$6M. The R-rated movie starring Marisa Abela as the late Grammy-winning millennial soul singer grossed only $375K in previews from 1,700 theaters. RT critics also harsh at 36%. Focus’ exposure on the movie is limited given that it shelled out $20M for domestic and several foreign rights.

Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ends its first week with $75.3M, not far from the $77.3M first week take of 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes.