Labour Regains Ground: Conservative Losses Mount

Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din

The primary outcome of the recent municipal elections in England has solidified the fate of the ruling Conservative Party. Regarded as the final electoral test before the upcoming parliamentary elections slated for autumn, these results reflect a significant shift in voter sentiment.

English constituents cast their ballots for municipal councilors, regional mayors, and police commissioners. However, the Conservatives managed to re-elect only 515 of their councilors, while 474 others lost their positions. This equates to nearly half of the party’s candidates losing their constituencies.

Moreover, they not only trailed behind Labour but also the Liberal Democrats in terms of council seats, securing a distant third place overall. To put this into perspective, the Liberal Democrats hold a mere 15 seats in the House of Commons compared to the Conservatives’ 345.

Meanwhile, Labour successfully reclaimed its influence in the once-industrial north of England, where it secured significant victories. Conversely, the Liberal Democrats made notable gains in the southern regions, traditionally dominated by the Conservatives.

In essence, Rishi Sunak’s party faces mounting pressure from all sides. The picture becomes even clearer when considering the results of the mayoral elections.

Out of the eleven victorious mayors, ten belong to Labour, with only one affiliated with the Conservatives. Furthermore, the party lost one of its incumbent mayors in these elections.

Undoubtedly, the most high-profile mayoral race was the re-election bid of London Mayor Sadiq Khan for a third term.

Here, the Conservatives have only themselves to blame.

While London indeed differs significantly from the rest of England, with its distinct demographic composition and left-leaning political landscape, Sadiq Khan does not enjoy universal popularity among its residents. Additionally, the city has witnessed a sharp rise in crime rates and attempts to impose stringent car taxes as part of emissions reduction efforts.

To succeed in the London mayoral race, all the Conservatives needed was a viable candidate. However, inexplicably, they chose the relatively unknown Susan Hall and suffered a defeat by a 10% margin. Consequently, Labour supporters celebrated, while concerns arose for their leader Keir Starmer.

Notably, the Green Party achieved commendable results, particularly among left-leaning youth dissatisfied with Starmer’s centrist approach. Ambitious leftist projects, such as the Green New Deal, have been sidelined by Labour, leading Corbynites to seek refuge in the Greens.

The Greens are consolidating even further in traditionally left-leaning university towns like Bristol or Norwich. While these results may not be fatal for Labour, the landscape could change dramatically once they assume power and inevitably make their first mistakes.

More attention is warranted for the exodus of Muslim voters from the Labour camp.

Over the past six months, Keir Starmer has found himself defending his lukewarm stance on Gaza and Israel. This inconsistency on a sensitive issue has prompted politically active Muslims to seek a new political home, with many defecting from Labour en masse.

Some may have interpreted the term “Green New Deal” too literally and have already shifted allegiance to the Greens. Others are exploring smaller parties, such as George Galloway’s Workers Party, formed after he left Labour over the Iraq War.

Another player on the political field is the Reform Party, founded by one of Brexit’s main proponents, Nigel Farage.

The party fielded candidates in only 12% of municipalities and managed to elect only a few of them. However, in areas where the party was present on the ballot, candidates garnered more than 10% of the vote. This poses a significant threat to the Conservatives. While the Reform Party may not win parliamentary seats, it could serve as a perfect spoiler for Rishi Sunak’s party, siphoning off votes from a portion of the right-wing electorate.

The surprising result of this election was that the dissatisfied within the Conservative Party finally resigned themselves to the inevitable. There are years ahead in opposition, and perhaps even the complete disappearance of the party, which in other circumstances would already be thinking about preparing for the bicentenary.

A week before the elections, conservative oppositionists anonymously declared that the party’s crushing defeat would be a trigger for internal rebellion. A couple of days passed and there was silence around Rishi.

This silence is easy to explain.

It’s just that the dissatisfied never had a single candidate on whom everyone could rely. Which means Rishi Sunak needn’t worry. He will not be evicted from Downing Street now, but in a couple of months. A Labor victory in the autumn parliamentary elections is now inevitable.