Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Jay Kelly”
Courtesy of Netflix
Oscars Best Original Screenplay Commentary (Updated Oct. 2, 2025): If you’re wondering what kind of stories Hollywood could be celebrating this awards season, the answer is basically “all of them.”
The themes of the original screenplay Oscar race really have it all. Bouncing from tales of brothers in “Sinners” to sisters in “Sentimental Value,” messy divorces in “Is This Thing On?” and the glitzy chaos of Tinseltown itself in “Jay Kelly.” Political junkies get helpings of government corruption through “It Was Just an Accident” and “The Secret Agent,” while “A House of Dynamite” asks the cheerful question: what if humanity is doomed?
The real fun comes in the category’s wild cards. Newcomer Eva Victor could crash the party with “Sorry, Baby,” proving you don’t need decades of credits to earn critical attention. Horror fans could finally see the genre gets its due with “Weapons,” which could pair nicely with “Sinners.” We also have “Roofman,” which dramatizes the true story of a robber who lived inside a Toys R’ Us for an entire year.
Some of this year’s nominees might come from Variety’s Screenwriters to Watch list, just announced with the likes of Austin Kolodney, who assembles a taut and riveting tale in Gus Van Sant’s “Dead Man’s Wire,” or Danya Jimenez and Hannah McMechan, two of the four scribes of the Netflix smash hit “KPop Demon Hunters.”
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios, and final credits are subject to change.
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Eligible Screenplays
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