Dismissing Vladimir Putin’s offer of a brief ceasefire in May as yet “another attempt at manipulation” is an understatement. The Russian president is – according to the former head of MI6 – intent on taking much more than just Ukraine.
Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from Donald Trump to increase sanctions or stung by the US president’s irritation at Russia’s stalling over a ceasefire, Putin is cupping his ears in a pantomime of attention and carrying on doing as he pleases.
Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically stark message from ex-spy chief Sir Alex Younger who, after a lifetime in the shadows of espionage, has a simple message: “If you don’t stand up to him, he comes back for more – how many more times do we need to be told this?”
Putin’s latest play is a three-day ceasefire from 8 May to mark the Russian anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. His last Easter ceasefire was ignored by his own troops.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has, again, called his bluff by asking for an unconditional cessation of hostilities while wider talks get underway.
But that idea has been hobbled by American negotiators who have already adopted most of Russia’s aims as first principles ahead of any talks. Lately these have, again, included repeated statements by Trump that Crimea, captured by Russia in 2014, was a lost cause for Kyiv.
Zelensky will be buoyed by the signing of a minerals deal with Trump after a flurry of diplomacy between Kyiv and Washington, ensuring that the US has some financial skin in the game when it comes to the future of his country.
Any US military aid, from whenever the deal is ratified by the Ukrainian parliament, will be assigned a dollar value and given a credit in a joint US-Ukraine investment fund in a minerals-for-weapons swap. It will only be valid on future resource exploitation, so the US has a financial incentive to continue to back Ukraine.
But Russia will hope, at the end of any future peace talks to secure an agreement to hold on to the parts of Ukraine it has already captured.
The US and Russia have agreed in advance that Zelensky will have to accept that from the very start of any discussion. The stakes are, however, considerably higher for the wider region.
In its most recent annual report, the Danish foreign intelligence service agrees: “The war in Ukraine will define European security, even beyond 2025. Russia will further intensify its use of hybrid means, including sabotage and malign influence campaigns.
“Furthermore, Russia is likely to become more willing to challenge Nato countries with its military means. Consequently, the military threat from Russia will increase over the coming years.”
Right now, on the front lines in Ukraine, soldiers are exhausted and battered but also deeply frustrated by the assumption that they are losing a war of attrition and that a Russian victory is inevitable.
Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the state of the conflict, the motivations on either side and its wider impact on the world.
