Who will likely be the next Catholic Church leader?

According to the French press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s.

Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy.

He was born in Algeria to a family of Spanish immigrants who moved to France after Algerian independence, and has lived most of his life in Marseille, a port that has been a crossroads of cultures and religions for centuries.

Under Francis, Aveline made great career strides, becoming bishop in 2013, archbishop in 2019 and a cardinal three years later. His standing was boosted in 2023 when he organised an international church conference on Mediterranean issues at which Francis was the star guest.

If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century. He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II.

He understands but does not speak Italian – potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires familiarity with the city’s power games and intrigues.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65 (Congolese)

Ambongo is one of Africa’s most outspoken Catholic leaders, heading the archdiocese that, with the largest number of Catholics on the continent, is seen as the future of the church.

He has been archbishop of Congo’s capital since 2018 and a cardinal since 2019. Francis also appointed him to a group of advisers helping to reorganise the Vatican bureaucracy.

In Congo and widely in Africa, Ambongo has been deeply committed to the Catholic orthodoxy and is seen as conservative.

In 2024, he signed a statement on behalf of the bishops’ conferences of Africa and Madagascar refusing to follow Francis’ declaration allowing priests to offer blessings to same-sex couples in what amounted to continent-wide dissent from a papal teaching. The rebuke crystallised both the African church’s line on LGBTQ outreach and Ambongo’s stature within the African hierarchy.

He has received praise from some in Congo for promoting interfaith tolerance, especially on a continent where religious divisions between Christians and Muslims are common.

An outspoken government critic, the cardinal is also known for his unwavering advocacy for social justice. In a country with high levels of poverty and hunger despite mineral riches, and where fighting by rebel groups has killed thousands and displaced millions in one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises, he frequently criticises both government corruption and inaction, as well as the exploitation of the country’s natural resources by foreign powers.

Ambongo’s criticism of authorities has drawn both public admiration and legal scrutiny. Last year, prosecutors ordered a judicial investigation of him after accusing him of “seditious behaviour” over his criticism of the government’s handling of the conflict in eastern Congo.

Peter Erdo, 72 (Hungarian)

If Erdo is elected, he would inevitably be seen as a compromise candidate – someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world.

Erdo was considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive church contacts in Europe and Africa and the fact he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularised advanced nations – a top priority for many cardinals.

He ranks as a conservative in theology, and in speeches throughout Europe, he stresses the Christian roots of the continent. However, he is also regarded as pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics. That said, he raised eyebrows in the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis when he went against Francis’ call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking.

An expert in church law, Erdo has been on a fast track his entire career, becoming a bishop in his 40s and a cardinal in 2003 when he was just 51, making him the youngest member of the College of Cardinals until 2010.

He has excellent Italian and speaks German, French, Spanish and Russian, which could help thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox churches after the deep chill of the war in Ukraine.

Erdo is not a charismatic speaker, but while this was once undoubtedly viewed as a serious drawback, it could potentially be seen as an advantage this time around if cardinals want a calm papacy following the fireworks of Francis’ rule.

Mario Grech, 68 (Maltese)

Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings, he has gone on to big things, appointed by Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops – a heavyweight position within the Vatican.

Initially viewed as a conservative, Grech moved sharply with the times and has been a torchbearer of Francis’ reforms within the church for years.

In 2008, several gay Maltese citizens declared they were leaving the church in protest at what they saw as the anti-LGBTQ stance of the then-pontiff, Pope Benedict.

Grech offered them little sympathy at the time but, speaking in the Vatican in 2014, he called for the church to be more accepting of its LGBTQ members and creative in finding new ways to address contemporary family situations. The following day, Francis tapped him on the shoulder at breakfast and complimented him on the speech, marking him out for future promotion.

In 2018, Grech spoke about how he relished the challenges faced by the church, warning that it would not remain relevant to modern society if it did not move beyond nostalgia.

His views have won him some high-profile enemies. Conservative Cardinal Gerhard Muller turned on him in 2022, belittling his academic profile and accusing him of going against Catholic doctrine.

Grech’s allies insist he has friends in both the conservative and moderate camps and is known by many cardinals – an advantage in a conclave where so many cardinals are relative unknowns to each other.

Coming from a tiny country, his election as pope wouldn’t create any diplomatic or geopolitical headaches. He has stressed that he always seeks consensus over confrontation, but he has sometimes courted controversy.

Pietro Parolin, 70 (Italian)

Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a church diplomat for most of his life, serving as Francis’ secretary of state since 2013.

The position is similar to that of a prime minister, and secretaries of state are often called the “deputy pope” because they rank second to the pontiff in the Vatican hierarchy.

Parolin previously served as deputy foreign minister under Pope Benedict, who in 2009 appointed him the Vatican’s ambassador in Venezuela, where he defended the church against moves to weaken it by then-president Hugo Chavez. He was the main architect of the Vatican’s rapprochement with China and Vietnam.

Conservatives have attacked him for an agreement on the appointment of bishops in communist China. He has defended the agreement saying that, while it was not perfect, it avoided a schism and provided some form of communication with the government in Beijing.

Parolin was never a frontline or noisy activist in the church’s so-called culture wars, which centred on issues such as abortion and gay rights, although he did once condemn the legalisation of same-sex marriage in many countries as “a defeat for humanity”.

He has defended the Vatican’s power and said local churches cannot make decisions that would end up affecting all Catholics.

Softly spoken and genteel, Parolin would return the papacy to the Italians after three successive non-Italian popes – John Paul II of Poland, Benedict of Germany and Francis of Argentina.

He entered the Vatican’s diplomatic service just three years after his priestly ordination in 1980, so his pastoral experience is limited. In his favour, he speaks several languages.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60 (Italian)

Pizzaballa is on the young side to be pope, but he is a favourite of many Italian Vatican watchers eager to see an Italian take back the papacy.

He has served in Jerusalem for more than three decades, moving to the city from his native Italy just a month after his ordination. Pizzaballa served as custodian of the Holy Land for 12 years, responsible for all Catholic properties in the region.

In 2016, Francis appointed Pizzaballa to fill the vacant seat of the Latin Patriarch in Jerusalem – the representative of Catholics in Israel, Cyprus, Jordan and the Palestinian territories – and made it official in 2020. Pizzaballa was elevated to cardinal in 2023.

A fluent Hebrew speaker, Pizzaballa has translated various liturgical texts into the language for the Catholic communities in Israel. He gained favour in Israel after offering to take the place of children being held hostage in Gaza, a week after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

Before Easter that year, Pizzaballa warned in an interview that the region’s 2000-year-old Christian community was under increasing attack, as Israel’s government emboldened extremists who have harassed clergy and vandalised religious property at a quickening pace.

Pizzaballa has travelled extensively around the region, including to help celebrate a special pre-Christmas Mass in Gaza last year.

Robert Prevost, 69 (American/Peruvian)

Francis brought Prevost to the Vatican in 2023 to serve as the powerful head of the office that vets bishop nominations from around the world, one of the most important jobs in the Catholic Church. As a result, Prevost has a prominence going into the conclave that few other cardinals have.

One strike against him, however, is that he’s American, and there has long been a taboo against a US pope, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States in the secular sphere. But Prevost, a Chicago native, could be a first because he’s also a Peruvian citizen and lived for years in Peru, first as a missionary and then as an archbishop.

Prevost was also twice elected prior general, or top leader, of the Augustinians, the 13th-century order founded by St Augustine. Francis clearly had an eye on him for years, moving him from the Augustinian leadership back to Peru in 2014 to serve as the administrator and later archbishop of Chiclayo.

He remained in that position, acquiring Peruvian citizenship in 2015, until Francis brought him to Rome in 2023 to assume the presidency of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. In that job, he would have kept in regular contact with the Catholic hierarchy in the part of the world that still counts the most Catholics.

Since arriving in Rome, Prevost has kept a low public profile, but he is well known to the men who count.

Significantly, he presided over one of Francis’ most revolutionary reforms, adding three women to the voting bloc that decides which bishop nominations to forward to the pope. In early 2025, Francis again showed his esteem by appointing Prevost to the most senior rank of cardinals, suggesting he would at least be Francis’ choice in any future conclave.

Prevost’s comparative youth could count against him if his brother cardinals don’t want to commit to a pope who might reign for another two decades.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67 (Filipino)

Tagle is often called the “Asian Francis” because of his similar commitment to social justice and, if elected, he would be the first pontiff from Asia.

On paper, Tagle – who generally prefers to be called by his nickname “Chito” – seems to have all the boxes ticked to qualify him to be a pope.

He has had decades of pastoral experience since his ordination to the priesthood in 1982. He then gained administrative experience, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila. Benedict made him a cardinal in 2012.

In a move seen by some as a strategy by Francis to give Tagle some Vatican experience, the Pope in 2019 transferred him from Manila to head the church’s missionary arm – the Dicastery for Evangelisation.

He comes from what some called “Asia’s Catholic lung” because the Philippines has the region’s largest Catholic population. His mother was an ethnic Chinese Filipino. He speaks fluent Italian and English.

Between 2015 and 2022, he was the top leader of Caritas Internationalis, a confederation of more than 160 Catholic relief, social service and development organisations around the world. In 2022, Francis fired its entire leadership following accusations of bullying and humiliation of employees, and appointed a commissioner to run it.

Tagle, who was also removed from his role, had been nominally president but was not involved in the day-to-day operations. It remains to be seen how the saga will affect Tagle’s chances at the papacy.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76 (Ghanaian)

From humble beginnings in a small African town, Cardinal Peter Turkson has gone on to great things in the church, making him a contender to become the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.

He combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices, as well as strong communication skills. That he comes from one of the most dynamic regions for the church, which is struggling against the forces of secularism in its European heartlands, should also bolster his standing.

The fourth son in a family of 10 children, Turkson was born in Wassaw Nsuta, in what was then called the Gold Coast in the British Empire. His father worked in a nearby mine and doubled as a carpenter while his mother sold vegetables in the market.

He studied at seminaries in Ghana and New York, was ordained in 1975, and then taught in his former Ghanaian seminary and did advanced biblical studies in Rome. John Paul II appointed him archbishop of Cape Coast in 1992 and, 11 years later, made him the first cardinal in the history of the West African state.

Promotions continued under John Paul’s successor, Benedict, who brought him to the Vatican in 2009 to lead the body that promotes social justice, human rights and world peace. In that role, he was one of the Pope’s closest advisers on issues such as climate change and drew attention by attending conferences such as the Davos economic forum.

In 2023, he told the BBC he prayed “against” the possibility that he would be elected pope but some of his detractors said that, given his media appearances, it appeared he was campaigning for the job.

Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69 (Italian)

When Zuppi was promoted in 2015 to archbishop of Bologna, national media referred to him as the “Italian Bergoglio”, due to his affinity with Francis, the Argentinian Pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio.

Zuppi would be the first Italian pope since 1978.

Much like Francis when he lived in Buenos Aires, Zuppi is known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and the poor and cares little for pomp and protocol. He goes by the name of “Father Matteo”, and in Bologna he sometimes uses a bicycle rather than an official car.

In a city that loves its meat products, he once made waves when pork-free tortellini was served, as an option, for the feast day of Bologna’s patron saint. Zuppi called the Muslim-friendly move a normal gesture of respect and courtesy.

If he were made pope, conservatives would most likely view him with suspicion. Victims of church sexual abuse might also object to him, since the Italian Catholic Church – which he has led since 2022 – has been slow to investigate and confront the issue.

The Italian cardinal is closely associated with the Community of Sant’Egidio, a global peace and justice Catholic group based in the historic Rome district of Trastevere, where he spent most of his life as a priest.

Sant’Egidio, sometimes called “the United Nations of Trastevere”, brokered a 1992 peace agreement that ended a 17-year-old civil war in Mozambique, with the help of Zuppi as one of the mediators. He has engaged in more diplomacy recently as papal envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, concentrating on efforts to repatriate children who Ukraine says have been deported to Russia or Russian-held territories.

Zuppi is a born-and-bred Roman with a fairly thick regional accent and solid Catholic family roots.

Reuters, AP

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