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Israel was reportedly forced to rely on its intelligence agencies, rather than the US, to learn about the deal. Israelis, of course, have welcomed Alexander’s release, but the agreement has raised uncomfortable questions about why Israelis with dual nationality can be put on a fast-track to freedom while those with only Israeli citizenship cannot.
The release of the final American hostage could lead Trump to disengage even further with the war in Gaza, allowing Netanyahu to fight the war as he sees fit.
Trump has evinced next to no sympathy for the deaths of Palestinian civilians and has shown little interest in following up his outlandish plan to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
Unlike the Biden administration, Trump has not tried to pressure Israel into changing its military tactics to minimise civilian casualties or to insist upon the delivery of aid to the beleaguered strip. On the other hand, if Trump comes to perceive the war not just as a nuisance, but as an obstacle to his ability to strike deals across the Middle East, he could increase pressure on Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas.
Thirdly, the Trump administration has entered into talks with Israel’s prime adversary, Iran, over its nuclear program. This goes against Netanyahu’s desire for the US to isolate Iran diplomatically and provide support for a potential attack on its nuclear facilities.
“I want to make a deal with Iran. If I can make a deal with Iran I’ll be very happy,” Trump told an investment conference in Riyadh. “We’re going to make your region and the world a safer place. But if Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbours, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive, maximum pressure.”
The bellicose final sentence will please Netanyahu, but he will be alarmed by comments from Trump indicating Iran could continue enriching uranium under a possible deal with the US.
Fourthly, Trump appears to have little interest in driving forward a historic normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel that would marginalise Iran, a strategic rival to both nations. Trump has barely mentioned Israel while in Saudi Arabia, where his focus has been on a $US142 billion ($220 billion) arms deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In Qatar, he is preparing to accept the gift of a $US400 million luxury jet.
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Finally, Trump made the shock announcement that he would suspend US sanctions against the Syrian government led by former rebel Ahmed al-Sharaa. Trump has even agreed to meet the new Syrian leader, even though he and his group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are still on the US terrorist register.
Trump said his decision came after the urging of bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who last year announced he was severing ties with Israel. Netanyahu will eye Trump’s unilateral sanctions move warily, as he worries about the prospect of a strong Turkish ally emerging on Israel’s border.
It’s a reminder that, when Trump is forced to choose between self-interest and the United States’ special friendship with Israel, the self-interested dealmaker will win out every time.
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