There is some debate over whether the delivery freeze comes on the orders of the White House, or whether it’s a screw-up by the bean counters in the Pentagon.
Indeed, just last week Trump signalled that he was willing to find some more Patriot batteries for Kyiv – the holy grail of missile defence that Ukraine so desperately needs as Russia ramps up its attacks to unprecedented levels of intensity and frequency.
But in the big picture it doesn’t matter. Long-term, Trump has made it clear that the US is out of the Ukraine weapons supply game, and he believes that the war must end in diplomacy.
Sending more weapons to Kyiv, Trump apparently believes, will only add fuel to the conflict.
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Trump is wrong, for one simple reason. Ukraine is currently fighting a defensive war on the ground, and slowly losing it in part because of a lack of firepower.
Its only successful attacks are targeted at Russian airfields and military factories, and these strikes are undertaken using ingenious weapons of Ukraine’s own devising and manufacture.
And Kyiv has signalled that it’s ready for an immediate ceasefire if Russia follows suit. Ukraine needs weapons to defend against continuous Russian attacks, not to prolong the war.
Ukraine’s biggest practical problem is that European promises to step into the breach and fill the gap left by the US have so far yielded little in the way of actual arms.
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European militaries have been hollowed out by years of budget cuts, and whatever meagre stockpiles existed three years ago have been quickly consumed in the killing fields of Donbas.
Pledges to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP agreed at the NATO summit this month will boost Europe’s military-industrial complex – indeed the market capitalisation of Rheinmetall, the German tank manufacturer, has risen above Volkswagen’s.
But that extra investment will take years to make a difference.
Europe’s immediate answer has been to buy US arms and donate them to Ukraine.
But if Washington is not able or willing to send crucial armaments to Kyiv, as this week’s withheld shipments suggests, then Zelensky’s situation is worse than his remaining allies feared.
Telegraph, London
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