The disarmament of Hamas and Gaza’s post-war government: What we know about ‘phase two’ of Trump’s ceasefire deal
“A new and beautiful day is rising and now the rebuilding begins,” Donald Trump told world leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday, heralding the success of the first phase of his peace agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the war.
If the “first phase” sought to address the key demands of both sides – namely a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages to Israel – the second would focus on rebuilding the enclave in a way that guarantees lasting peace and security.
Trump acknowledged on Monday that the path to peace will be winding. The phases of the deal are “all a little bit mixed in with each other”, he said, assuring later that elements can still be taken “out of order in a positive way”.
The US president’s formula for peace is outlined in a 20-point plan unveiled at the end of September. The proposal contains a few short timeframes for the immediate pressures, as well as a number of more abstract commitments to the future.
Israel said it accepted the terms during its presentation on 29 September. But negotiations with Hamas on “phase two” are ongoing, Trump said on Monday.
Trump’s visit to Israel coincided with the effective completion of the first phase of the agreement. Israeli forces withdrew to an agreed line at the end of last week and ceased their fire, allowing Hamas to prepare the living hostages to be returned to Israel on Monday. Israel released around 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails in exchange.
Already there has been some movement on the terms. Initially, Hamas was supposed to release all 48 hostages, alive and dead, within 72 hours.
Israeli families were incensed to learn – on Monday – that not all of the remains of deceased hostages would be returned by the deadline. Israeli sources told CNN ahead of time that Israel had assessed that Hamas might not be able to recover all the bodies by the deadline, but defence minister Israel Katz said an intentional delay would be a violation of the agreement.
The ceasefire is fragile, and negotiators are adapting in real time. Perhaps intentionally, the 20-point framework does not define many hard conditions, leaving some space for discussion. Before heading to Egypt, Trump told reporters that the phases were “all a little bit mixed in with each other”. Later, he said, “we’re actually in stage three and four”.
“It’s not going to be, you know, just divided down so simply,” he said. “We can be long advanced on some of the things that we say we’re going to do. We can take them out of order in a positive way.”
The ceasefire that came into effect on 10 October should pave the way for the “unrestricted” flow of aid into Gaza via the UN and its agencies, and the Red Crescent. Access to food, water, shelter, energy and medication will be the most urgent priorities for the people of Gaza in the days that follow.
The ultimate task will be to rebuild Gaza, creating more permanent installations and guaranteeing security for both the local population and the people of Israel. Jaco Cilliers, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) official, told reporters on Tuesday that there were “very good indications” that countries, including the United States as well as Arab and European states, were willing to contribute to the $70bn cost of rebuilding Gaza. He estimated that the two-year war had generated at least 55 million tons of rubble.
Trump’s plan originally called for Hamas to lay down its weapons and disarm, making way for a transitional government until a more permanent one can step in. When Hamas agreed to return the hostages in exchange for detainees on 3 October, it also agreed to hand over power to Palestinian technocrats. It did not mention the condition to disarm. A Hamas source told the AFP news agency that disarmament was “out of the question”.
The full withdrawal of the Israeli military is contingent upon Hamas disarming, according to the agreement, and Israeli withdrawal from the parts of the strip it currently resides in (around 53 per cent) will be necessary for a comprehensive rebuilding operation.
