Premier League relegation run-in predicted: Just four points separate Tottenham, West Ham, Leeds and Nottingham Forest with one unlucky side going down on goal difference

The battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League looks set to go down to the wire, with Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and West Ham fearing for their top-flight futures.

With Wolves and Burnley looking cut adrift, it is looking like a dogfight between four teams to avoid finishing 18th.

Nottingham Forest put the cat amongst the pigeons on Sunday, beating Tottenham 3-0 in their relegation six-pointer to breathe life into their survival bid. The result plunged Spurs into further turmoil, with the prospect of unexpected relegation growing ever more likely for one of the Premier League’s ever-presents.

Tottenham remain only a point above West Ham, who currently lie the wrong side of the dotted line despite improving in recent months. Leeds are four points above the drop, but are by no means out of the woods.

There promises to be plenty of dramatic twists and turns in the final seven matchweeks of the season in the relegation fight. 

Daily Mail Sport has attempted to predict how the battle could play out.

Leeds – 33 points

Would Leeds fans have accepted this position at the start of the campaign?

Daniel Farke’s side are currently four points above the drop, with two teams between themselves and the bottom three.

There are growing concerns, though, following a run which has seen them pick up just four points from their last six matches – the second lowest tally in the division.

Those four points have all come from draws, with Leeds scoring just three goals across those matches, but only conceding five.

On paper, Leeds look to have a favourable fixture list, with Farke’s side playing all of the current bottom four in their last seven matches.

If Leeds go down from here, they will only have themselves to blame.

Biggest banker – Burnley (H), April 19

Leeds’ home form would be good enough to put them 13th in the table. Three points against the Clarets will feel like a must, particularly as they will want to keep daylight between themselves and the bottom three a week before travelling to Tottenham.

Biggest write-off – Man United (A), April 13

Leeds are 12 league games without an away win and yet to win at Old Trafford in the Premier League era.

Potential banana skin – Tottenham (A), May 9

Spurs have won two league matches at home and Leeds have won just once away, so this match could be a toss of the coin. Leeds will hope to already have put distance between themselves and the drop, but defeat in north London could see them dragged back in.

Nottingham Forest – 32 points

Forest’s statement 3-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday will have fans buoyant about their chances of beating the drop going into the international break.

The result came at the end of a positive week, with Forest also progressing to the Europa League quarter-finals.

Forest’s fixtures immediately after the international break could prove key to their survival, ahead of a tough looking conclusion to their season.

Forest’s home matches on paper could deliver points, but they have scored a league-low 13 goals in front of their own fans so far this season.

Biggest banker – Burnley (H), April 19

Vitor Pereira’s side will have a home match against the struggling Clarets circled for three points.  

Biggest write-off – Man United (A), May 17

Forest will be hoping the Red Devils have already secured Champions League qualification by the penultimate game of the season. However, you can bet Man United and Michael Carrick will want to deliver a final flourish in front of their home fans. 

Potential banana skin – Burnley (H), April 19

Anything but three points against Burnley would set nerves jangling, particularly with difficult looking away matches against Chelsea and Man United coming up in May.

Tottenham – 30 points

The mood is bleak at Tottenham heading into a three-week break following that dismal defeat in their six-pointer with Forest.

Spurs remain without a league win in 2026, picking up just five points so far this year. Will Igor Tudor even be in charge by the time Spurs face Sunderland on April 12?

It is hard to make a case for Spurs at this stage, with fans potentially hoping another change in the dugout and more players returning from injury could rescue the club.

On paper, there look to be some opportunities for Spurs to pick up points still, but the club is in its worst form in 91 years having gone 13 league games without a win.

With Tottenham’s home form remaining dreadful, picking up unexpected points on the road may be vital. Spurs fans may hope Aston Villa progress in the Europa League, as their match at Villa Park would be sandwiched between a two-legged semi-final.

Victories over Wolves and Leeds feel essential. 

Biggest banker – Leeds – Tottenham may have the worst home record in the league, but Leeds have only beaten Wolves away so far this season. Victory over Leeds is a must if Spurs are to stay up – but they have already lost to relegation rivals West Ham and Forest at home.

Write off – Chelsea – Spurs have won just one at Stamford Bridge since 1990 and it would be staggering if this team was the one to earn a second. With the match being their penultimate game of the campaign, Spurs fans will already be fearing the possibility that Chelsea could send them down.

Banana skin – Wolves – Tottenham fans will have identified Wolves and Leeds as their best bets for wins for the remainder of the campaign. But Wolves have improved considerably as the season has gone on and Tottenham have lost their last three at Molineux. 

West Ham – 29 points

The Hammers looked destined for the drop back in January, but their upturn in form under Nuno Espirito Santo has given real hope of survival.

The problem is that despite the improvement, West Ham remain in the bottom three heading to the final weeks of the season.

There will be an immediate chance to jump out of the bottom three with West Ham playing Wolves on a Friday night on April 10.

West Ham will also look to the next match against Crystal Palace as an opportunity, with their London rivals having won just three home matches in the league this season. 

The Hammers’ goal difference is the worst out of the four sides and that could ultimately prove crucial. 

Biggest banker – Wolves – Victory over Wolves would lift West Ham out of the bottom three and plunge Tottenham into the relegation zone before their match at Sunderland. It could prove a massive psychological blow.

Write off – Arsenal – West Ham will probably hope Arsenal have the title wrapped up by this point and have their eyes on other prizes. But on paper, this should be three points for the Gunners.

Banana skin – Leeds – West Ham fans will be dreading it coming down to the final day of the season and it remains possible this could be a shoot-out to avoid the drop.