People pouring over the crushing defeat of Viktor Orban’s government in Hungary – the most rightwing in Europe – will draw the conclusions that his antipathy to the EU, closeness to Vladimir Putin, failure to address younger voters and a sense of political corruption were at the heart of his downfall.
Yet while this may be the case, all these factors were also true about Orban when he won an equally crushing victory in the 2022 Hungarian election, a result which seemed to leave him untouchable.
In fact arguably he was in a politically stronger position this time than he was in 2022 with a friend in the White House Donald Trump rather than a political enemy Joe Biden.
He even had US vice president J. D. Vance doing a last minute cheerleading act at an eve of poll rally, although eleventh-hour polls suggest this may have hurt rather than helped.
What changed in the four years since that win which left the opposition to his Fidesz party almost wiped out?
The truth is that the unravelling began with the visit by Pope Francis and a scandal which followed that exposed the political corruption within Fidesz and Orban’s government, ended the careers of two of his political allies and put rocket boosters on Peter Magyar’s push to replace him as prime minister.
In April 2023 Pope Francis made an official visit to Hungary in a visit which was to be a crowning moment in the Orban era and a stamp of approval of his rightwing Catholic, pro-family anti-LGBTQ+ policies.
It was an unlikely trip though, politically. Francis and Orban were diametrically opposed particularly on the former Hungarian PM’s hardline attitude to migrants.
But at the same time Pope Francis had a soft spot for Hungary. When he was head of the Jesuits in Argentina he had got to know Hungarian nuns who had fled the country as a result of the Communists putting down the 1956 uprising and learnt their language.
Added to that in Eduard Habsburg, Orban had a skilled ambassador to the Holy See in Rome who also happened to be a descendent of the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s Royal family and developed a warm relationship with the Pope.
He had already established a surprising alliance with the late Pope in finding a peaceful solution with Putin to end the war in Ukraine rather than support military operations.
The visit itself was a success but the aftermath blew open Orban’s government and permanently loosened his steely grip on power.
In an attempt to reflect Francis’ theme of mercy, the Hungarian government took a decision to use it to show clemency to 25 criminals and pardon them of their crimes. It proved to be politically disastrous.
It emerged that one of those pardoned was Endre Kónya, the former deputy director of the Kossuth Zsuzsa Children’s Home in Bicske, who had intimidated children into withholding evidence of sexual abuse and paedophilia to protect his boss.
