Heathrow forecasts 1.1% fall in passenger numbers this year because of Iran war

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Heathrow Airport expects its passenger numbers to decline by 1.1% this year because of the Iran-US conflict.

The war is putting “notable downward pressure on traffic” with Middle East routes down 25%, the west London airport said in an investor report.

It is forecasting between 80.1 million and 84.5 million passengers will pass through its four terminals this year, with a “base case” of 83.6 million.

That is compared with 84.5 million in 2025, which was an all-time high.

Heathrow said its forecast for 2026 “reflects the risk that continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year”.

The airport added that this year’s underlying earnings are forecast to decline by £147 million compared with last year, and by £60 million compared with its forecast given in December.

An interim peace deal was signed by Iran and the US last week.