How deadlock in the Ukraine war is crippling global food prices
Global food prices could climb by more than nine per cent this year as a deadly escalation between Russia and Ukraine around the Black Sea threatens vital grain exports, analysts have warned.
Ukrainian exports fell an astonishing 75 per cent year-on-year in the first two weeks of August as Russia stepped up its attacks, striking ports more than 70 times in July and early August and hitting vessels on 62 occasions, according to port authorities.
Kyiv says the attacks threaten $40bn in crucial export revenue, worth 1.5 per cent of GDP, while hundreds of millions of people reliant on Ukrainian grain around the world stand to go without.
Pablo Meijer, assistant industry economist at advisory firm Oxford Economics, told The Independent that they now expect the World Bank food price index to rise by around 9.3 per cent in 2026, easing to around 4.4 per cent in 2027.
“Ukraine’s exports have fallen sharply with Odesa shut, and world wheat trade is running around 7 per cent lower,” he said, noting Russia’s grain export volumes also contracted by 71 per cent in August, down 83 per cent year on year for the first 10 days of September.
Russia is the largest exporter of grain in the world while Ukraine is the fifth. Between them, they supply nearly a third of the world’s wheat demand.
A flare up in hostilities has seen Russia’s Black Sea grain exports fall to their lowest level in 15 years, down 65 per cent year on year in July, according to Lloyd’s List. Ukraine has seen an even larger fall of three quarters, according to government data.
Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist at Oxford Economics, warned that Ukraine’s position has further deteriorated since August as ports remain shut and farmers are advised to plan for them to stay closed into the new year.
Grain exports totalled just 774,000 tonnes last month, down 79 per cent from the 2023-25 average for August, and around 1.4m tonnes in September, she said.
“On current rates, 2026/27 grain exports look closer to 20m tonnes, roughly half the pre-blockade forecast – and only if alternative routes reach capacity,” she said.
Agriculture is worth around 60 per cent of Ukraine’s export revenues and the current de facto blockade is estimated to be costing Ukraine as much as $70m per day, according to Economichna Pravda.
In recent seasons, Ukraine has provided around 6 per cent of global wheat exports and 11 per cent of corn. The disruptions, if prolonged, could start to eat away at global markets.
The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) is among those reliant on Ukrainian agricultural exports due to their cost and location, meaning a drop in output threatens people in some of the most vulnerable parts of the world.
Before the war, Ukrainian food exports – largely wheat, vegetable oil and peas – fed around 400 million people each year, according to the WFP.
