The political fallout of Bolsonaro’s exodus after Brazilian election defeat

Former Brazilian president Flávio Bolsonaro is now in Miami after fleeing to the US following his resounding political defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s elections.

Refusing to concede, Bolsonaro has styled himself as the “leader of Brazil”, citing electoral fraud without providing any evidence.

The Rio de Janeiro senator said in a Wednesday letter he had been forced to travel to the US as he is suffering political and judicial persecution.

The flight of the 45-year-old ally of US President Donald Trump just days after his defeat in the runoff vote is sending shockwaves through Brazil’s political right wing, and echoing across the region – and it may yet spark more trouble for relations between the South American country and Washington.

Here’s what you need to know about the potential fallout of Bolsonaro’s exodus from Brazil.

Changes in the Brazilian right

Bolsonaro has pledged to take charge of the opposition to Lula from the US.

“I will say what you cannot say, and I will assume the risks you cannot take,” he said in a letter on Wednesday, addressing political representatives of his party.

But the move to Miami complicates that vow, analysts have said, leaving a power vacuum on the Brazilian right wing, which had previously been united around Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign.

Last December, his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed him his political heir.

Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence after attempting a coup.

“Flávio’s departure, along with the difficulty of directing the process from a distance and all the criticism he is likely to face for saying he wouldn’t flee and then fleeing, is likely to weaken him,” political science professor at Insper University Carlos Melo told AP.

However, as a political force, the right could lose neither influence nor impact following his exodus because of its advances in Congress, political scientist at the Federal University of Alagoas Luciana Santana told AP.

“The group in Congress retains instruments to block proposals, negotiate with government and dispute the public agenda,” Santana said.

Impact on the global far right

Brazil would have become more aligned with its neighbours with a Bolsonaro win, as conservative governments have swept to power in seven presidential elections in the past year and a half.

Across swathes of Latin America, voters disenfranchised by increasing levels of crime have rewarded political candidates promising to restore order.

From Peru’s Keiko Fujimori to Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, recently elected conservatives have bent the knee to Trump while singing the same tune as El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose sweeping crackdown on gangs has dramatically decreased the number of homicides, albeit at the cost of mass arrests and suspended civil liberties.

Bolsonaro’s loss would be a setback for the far-right in the area and beyond, because it had blocked its ascension to the presidency of a regional economic powerhouse with significant diplomatic weight, Santana told AP.

However, Lula’s win would not inherently translate more broadly into the weakening of the movement, she said.

Alongside gains in Congress, Flávio had received almost 60 million votes, showing the competitiveness of the right-wing movement in Brazil.

Further from Brazil’s borders, the international implications of Flávio’s escape will depend on how the move is interpreted.

“Bolsonaro’s escape can be used by international networks as a symbol of alleged persecution. This could mobilise those who most strongly identify with the movement,” Santana told AP.

Tensions between Washington and Brasilia

As congratulations arrived from Brazil’s allies and rivals around the world, Trump on Monday suggested, without providing any evidence, that Lula’s reelection was “rigged.”

But Trump declined to comment when he was on Wednesday asked about Bolsonaro’s assertion that he was the “rightful president-elect of Brazil” — a term the defeated candidate later softened to “leader of Brazil”.

The US President instead said he had given Bolsonaro a “pass” to enter the country.

“I won’t get involved,” Trump said, before repeating his claim that the election was “very strange.”

Lula’s win solidifies the most populous country and largest economy in Latin America as a political counterweight to Washington and limits Trump’s push to tighten his vice on the Western Hemisphere.

Lula has long championed the long Brazilian tradition of nonalignment, nurturing links with multiple competing powers.

His government has deepened economic ties with China and sought more significant global influence through BRICS, an organisation of emerging economies.

Although Bolsonaro’s presence in the US adds “a new layer of problems to the already complicated bilateral relationship,” it is unlikely to be decisive, Oliver Stuenkel, a political scientist and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, told AP.

While there will now be two Bolsonaro brothers potentially lobbying the US government on behalf of specific policies vis-a-vis Brazil, whether Washington heeds any such calls remains to be seen, Stuenkel said.

“Either Trump will pursue a pragmatic stance and basically recognise that US pressure to elect Flávio failed … or there will continue to be continued friction,” he said.