After almost losing Trump, Putin changes tack and gets US president right where he wants him

At the same time, tensions between Washington and Kyiv have reappeared.

Zelensky said on Saturday that the Ukrainian Constitution does not allow his government to negotiate away the country’s land. Trump initially told European officials that the meeting with Putin would be followed by a three-way summit with both Putin and Zelensky. But the Kremlin quickly said no such promise had been made. The White House proceeded anyway.

Few analysts believe the Russian leader will be content to stop the war based on a real estate negotiation alone.

Putin has made it clear that, among other things, he wants a formal promise that Ukraine will not enter NATO or any other Western military alliances, host Western troops on its territory or be allowed to build up a military that threatens Russia – making Ukraine perpetually vulnerable.

“The fundamental thing for Russia is domination,” Greene said.

Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, said Putin would go into the summit on Friday (US time) in Alaska pursuing various scenarios.

Those include a favourable deal with Trump that the US president successfully forces upon Ukraine or a favourable deal with Trump that Zelensky refuses, causing the US to walk away from Ukraine, Gabuev said.

The third option, he noted, is that the Russian leader continues his current path for another 12 to 18 months, with the expectation that Ukraine will run out of soldiers faster than the Russian war economy runs out of steam.

Putin understands that Trump is willing to offer things few other American leaders would ever consider, which could help Russia fracture Ukraine and divide the Western alliance.

Said Greene: “If you could get Trump to recognise Russia’s claim to the lion’s share of the territory that it has taken, understanding that the Ukrainians and the Europeans might not come along for the ride on that, you drive a long-term wedge between the US and Europe.”

But despite wanting those things, Putin won’t stop the war for them, if getting them means agreeing to a sovereign Ukraine with a strong military, aligned with the West, that is able to make its own arms, Gabuev said.

“Trump is a big opportunity for him,” Gabuev said. “I think that he understands that. But at the same time, he is not ready to pay the price of Ukraine slipping away forever.”

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Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said the two leaders would come into the summit with different goals – Trump’s being to end the war and Putin’s being a strategic repositioning of Russia.

“For Putin, it’s really about bigger goals,” Meister added. “It is about his legacy. It is about where Russia will stand after this war. It is much more fundamental. This creates a different willingness to pay costs.”

And despite negotiations about his country’s land, Zelensky will not be in the room.

“For Ukraine, it is a disaster,” Meister said.