As Nomination Voting Opens Next Week Are Emmy Campaigns Outspending Oscars In The FYC Game? Plus My Surefire Tony Award Predictions Based On Seeing Only 6 Broadway Shows – Notes On The Season

A column chronicling conversations and events on the awards circuit.

Emmy nomination round voting gets going next Thursday with ballots due to be completed by the June 23rd deadline. Maybe that is why the 20,000ish members of the Television Academy are seeing a flurry of emails, invites, FYC events, notifications, and last minute campaigning at a pace I can’t quite recall in all my years covering these awards and as a longtime member and former Writers Governor of the Academy itself.

The cutoff date for eligibility for this year’s contest was May 31, and in May alone I counted 148 direct emails from the Television Academy with FYC invites, screening reminders and lineups from all the networks, streamers, and studios touting their wares. Every one of these is paid for so the Academy is raking in a lot of cash off Emmy campaigning, all the while reminding members they have nothing to do with the actual events themselves. That number of 148 is just covering one month and doesn’t include all the other direct emails, billboards all over L.A., additional events and screenings, expensive activations such as the ones being done by Disney, Amazon, Netflix and others, blah blah blah.

This has all been going on for a while since the TV Academy officially opened submissions on February 20 for this year’s race with eligibility covering June 1, 2024 to May 31, 2025. The first FYC missive I got from the Television Academy did indeed come on that same day, February 20 with an invite to a screening of Onyx Collective’s legal drama, Reasonable Doubt followed by panel discussion and the obligatory reception (oh, those all-important receptions). Similar emails touting Paradise and House Of The Dragon were just a few days behind. The Oscars had not even taken place at this point but we were already morphing into Emmy season, and it hasn’t slowed down a bit. At this point it seems everyone thinks they have a chance to break through, even with evidence that voters tend to stick to the same old- same old year after year, being very picky letting newcomers into the club. But don’t tell that to Hallmark Media which threw a combined FYC event for Holiday Touchdown: A Chiefs Love Story and Finding Mr. Christmas, followed by two, count ’em, two panels with a combined total of 15 panelists. Then there was another one to rival the KC Chiefs with America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders with acutal cheerleaders joining the panel (and, uh, reception).

Other May invites I have gotten cover the waterfront from one for BYU TV to one for something called Creative Commandos, to another hopeful called Josh Johnson: The Failure, Fever, & Frenzy Around Luigi Mangione (!). Peacock even sent some scary looking guy out of the middle ages to my front door simply to request my presence at a Breakfast event May 15 (I wasn’t home and later got an email saying I would get a digital invite). This was reminiscent of two years ago when they sent a group of “nuns” to my house for some Mrs. Davis Emmy promotion. Peacock apparently likes freaking out my neighbors. And it is all continuing into June as the clock counts down. Amazon’s The Boys invited me to a ice skating presentation for the series with cocktails, food etc plus a chance for me to skate myself in the Century City Mall Atrium (thanks, but no thanks). And earlier this week MAX’s pr team came up with a novel way of working two key contenders into a Pickleball event at Venice Beach obstensibly to tout MAX’s initital Roland-Garros (French Open) deal, promising a face off between Hacks ( Paul W. Downs and Robby Hoffman) and The Pitt (Katherine LaNasa and Shawn Hatosy) , plus some expert advice on the sidelines from tennis star Andy Roddick.

Well, you get the idea. The efforts for the attention of Emmy voters is as fierce as ever but does any of this stuff move the needle?

“One billboard would be nice,” Billy Crystal lamented to me before a packed SAG-AFTRA Foundation panel he did with co-star Judith Light after a screening of the final two episodes at the Meryl Streep Center at SAG of their Apple TV+ Limited Series, Before which sees Crystal dipping into the horror/psychological thriller waters for the first time. It’s not easy being seen, not with this level of competition. In fact the SAG Foundation and their incredible new facility at their Mid-Wilshire headquarters has opened another front for Emmy campaigners and just about everyone is making use of it. As a member of SAG/AFTRA I am getting daily notifications and invites and wrapups of these FYC opportunities that also serve as a chance for actors to see fellow actors in action as the season progresses. Among those scheduled to stop by this weekend before voting starts are Gary Oldman, Jonathan Pryce and the Slow Horses cast.

So this all begs the question: are the Emmys beating the Oscars in the campaign game? It certainly feels more vibrant now after a rough few years with the Pandemic and the Actors/Writers strikes wreaking havoc on the whole process and even forcing the TV Academy for the first time to hold two ceremonies within nine months of each other just to keep everything on track. Now it is back to business as usual, one Primetime Emmy show a year, and hopefully it can stay that way. Nominations will be announced on July 15.

ARE TONY AWARDS SURPRISES IN STORE THIS WEEKEND

No awards show has won more Emmys than the Tonys. A perennial nominee and frequent winner in the variety categories in the decades since Broadway’s biggest night started nationally televising its ceremonies in 1967, the Tonys (like the Grammys) have the biggest advantage in terms of putting on a great show as the ceremony CBS has been broadcasting for years and years is really a celebration of Broadway itself with a few categories thrown into the mix between knockout performances of each year’s mix of the best the Great White Way has to offer. Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirshner are back as Producers (the much celebrated duo has also led the Golden Globes broadcast for the past two years and the Oscars the year before that, among many Emmy ceremonies as well) and have shared 10 Emmys for the Tonys over the years with Weiss adding a few more as director.

As I customarily do I stopped by NYC on my way to Cannes last month and caught up with six Tony nominated shows this year. Although I will leave the formal winner predictions to my colleague Greg Evans who covers Broadway all year long, I do have some thoughts in terms of what I did see and where I think some categories might go so who needs to see everything? Overall this just seems like an incredible year for Broadway, and that means the Tony show itself will benefit, especially with the wickedly fine Cynthia Erivo hosting. For Outstanding Musical I will bet the farm that the charming and inventive Maybe Happy Ending, which is tied with Death Becomes Her and Buena Vista Social Club with 10 nominations each, will be the deserving victor. It is a complete original. It could sweep. Now I admit I didn’t see any of the other nominees so take this prediction with a grain of salt but really, how can it miss? Everyone in my row loved it.

For Best Musical Revival I did see two of the nominees, the frontrunners no doubt, Sunset Boulevard and endlessly revived Gypsy. There can be no question the winner here is going to be Sunset Boulevard, a brilliantly reimagined and startlingly alive production straight from London where it wowed there too. There is also a showdown for Best Leading Actress In A Musical between the six-time winner and all-time record holder Audra McDonald giving it her best shot as Mama Rose in Gypsy, and Pussycat Doll Nicole Scherzinger as the youngest Norma Desmond of all time in Sunset Boulevard. Bet the entire Chase Bank on Scherzinger who astonishes and has the most thrilling voice since Streisand. McDonald in a role that usually proves a winner for whatever diva takes it on is the angriest Mama Rose I have ever seen and she is spectacular, but I worried she was going to truly strain that gorgeous voice in this one. Nevertheless this belongs to Scherzinger. It would be a crime otherwise. They are up against Jasmine Amy Rogers in Boop! which I didn’t see, and also the Death Becomes Her pair of Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard who I also didn’t see although it was no fault of my own as I had tickets for the Mothers Day matinee but got a notice two days earlier that for unforseen circumstances Hilty would not be performing. Not sure why she decided to bag that one performance (it also had a 7:30 show later that night) but I also cancelled.

That cancellation of my 2pm Death Becomes Her allowed me fortunately to switch to the much praised and most nominated play of the year, John Proctor Is The Villain before heading for the airport. Though I haven’t seen any of its competition for the prize I have to predict this contemporary riff on Arthur Miller’s The Crucible as it is studied by a high school class that gets too close to comfort to the plot will win Best New Play. It is thrilling theatre. It’s main rivals are the beloved comedy Oh! Mary which has all the buzz ( I will see it eventually in L.A. when it inevitably travels) and Purpose whose playwright Branden Jacobs-Jenkins won the Tony last year for Appropriate (which I did see and correctly predicted its victory even though I hadn’t seen the other nominees then either), so as you can see my track record is pretty good even without seeing most of this stuff. Maybe that is weirdly an advantage?

In other key acting races here is my gut. Based on buzz Best Leading Actor In A Play will be Cole Escola in Oh! Mary over George Clooney who I thought was great in Good Night And Good Luck which I did see in a $700+ seat at the Winter Garden. I am rooting for Clooney who broke every Broadway record in his stage debut and is getting the message of this important and pertinent work out there by putting it on CNN Saturday as well. However, Tony voters like to anoint their own and Escola (though he wasn’t in Ocean’s 11, 12, or 13) really had them talking this season. Leading Actress in a Play hands down will be Sarah Snook playing 26 roles in The Picture Of Dorian Gray. I didn’t see it either, but based on my math that is 25 more roles than any of her competition got to play.

Finally for Best Leading Actor in a Musical I want to declare a tie between two that I did see: Darren Criss, so charming and on the money as a robot in love in Maybe Happy Ending, and Jonathan Groff simply brilliant and electric as Jonathan Groff playing Bobby Darin in the enormously entertaining Just In Time. I also saw a terrific Tom Francis in this category in Sunset Boulevard who deserves an award just for the bit at intermission where he tours though the theatre and out, way out, on to the streets of the theatre district . I didn’t see the others but this one comes down to Criss and Groff, the latter winning this catergory last year for Merrily We Roll Along. Sorry I just can’t choose. It is a tie.

The Tony Awards air on CBS (same network where Primetime Emmys air in September) live Sunday 8pm ET/5pm PT with a pre show an hour and a half earlier (hosted by Criss) on Pluto TV.