A peevish spokesman for Vladimir Putin bristled with indignation recently at Donald Trump’s description of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “like kids fighting in the park”.
Not so, Dmitry Peskov pouted; the conflict is an “existential question” for Russia. “This is a question of our security and the future of ourselves and our children, the future of our country,” continued Putin’s spokesman, who has grown more accustomed to preening with pleasure at the relentless assaults on Ukraine from the White House this year.
He is right. Victory for Russia was once defined as regime change in Kyiv. But it really need only be a messed up Ukraine, unstable, violent and impoverished.
Because a democratic Ukraine enjoying cultural renaissance, freedom, and economic growth with lots of Russian speakers shows Russia’s population that there’s an alternative to the kleptocratic autocracy they currently endure.
As the summer fighting season gets underway in the fourth year of Putin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour, Russia has clearly shifted its main effort to permanently destabilising Ukraine.
Kyiv, meanwhile, has demonstrated that it is no longer on the back foot and that it is far from defeated. Indeed two years after its failed summer counter-offensive, Kyiv is growing in strength and confidence.
Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to drive Russia out of its lands this year. But it is hanging on and by next year may find it has the upper hand as European aid begins to come through to replace the military support that the US has withdrawn.
Donald Trump has provided no new military support this year. About $3.85bn (£2.85bn) remains unspent from previous allocations – after that… nothing.
Russian forces have renewed their attacks around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka on the eastern front. The aim here is to try to encircle Ukrainian forces and cut the supply routes to Kramatorsk, the administrative headquarters of Ukrainian-held Donetsk province, which Russia has mostly captured – and illegally annexed.
Ukrainian military sources on the ground have reported a massive increase in the range and efficacy of Russian fibre optic guided drones, with a range up to 15 miles unspooling a filament of optical cable directly connected to an operator on the ground.
The guidance system makes them invulnerable to jamming equipment used by Ukraine. Elite Russian drone forces have been deployed from the Russian counterattacks to drive Kyiv’s forces out of Kursk to the eastern front, they said.
The results have been very small advances by Russian troops, at enormous cost. Nato estimates that around 950 Russians are being killed every day.
Although casualty figures are rarely accurate, live video feeds show small numbers of Russian and Ukrainian troops scrabbling for cover and dodging drones in the dust and rubble of apocalyptic landscapes – unmanned aircraft which are now believed to be responsible for more than 70 per cent of casualties.
Ukraine has repeatedly offered an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and face-to-face meetings between Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin. The US efforts to broker an armistice have gone nowhere while Russia is trying to capture more of Ukraine.
