Economic chaos or a new normal? Three possible scenarios if Trump leaves Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump has reportedly told aides that he would be willing to end the war in Iran without securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait has become a central anxiety for Washington’s allies since Tehran forced its effective closure with strikes on commercial shipping.
In peacetime, the waterway facilitates the transit of around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure has forced oil prices up to a nearly four-year high, hurting consumers and businesses worldwide.
The US and Israel have only intensified their strikes on Iran in a bid to bring the regime to the negotiating table. But after a month without achieving the stated aim of , patience in the US is wearing thin.
Trump reassured the markets, and voters, on Tuesday that US forces will “be leaving very soon”, giving a timeframe of two to three weeks. He said that Iran “doesn’t have to make a deal” for the US to bow out.
With the US now considering a ‘no deal’ exit strategy, focus turns to what would be the outcome of the US leaving the world with the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Here are three ways it could play out:
US media reported on Tuesday that America is increasingly doubtful that it will be able to promise to reopen the Strait as part of a deal with Iran to end the war.
Officials told the Wall Street Journal that Trump has told his aides he is willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz, and unnamed sources close to the discussions told CNN that top officials worry they will not be able to reopen the waterway within a previously set timeline of four to six weeks.
There is no precedent for a prolonged closure of the Strait, and Iran would struggle to justify and uphold one. But experts say the world can expect to pay more for energy if the war ends without a clear fix.
Dan Brouillette, a former US energy secretary during Trump’s first term, told Fox Business that leaving without a deal would be “highly problematic”.
“If that were to happen, Iran gets exactly what it wants. It gets a ceasefire, it gets to keep this chokehold, and it looks more like a timeout than a deal. You’re simply going to push this issue into a future administration and into future economies.”
He said there would be no way around $4 per gallon gasoline and $100/barrel oil, and added that other vital products like urea for farming and helium for data centres also pass through the Strait.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN that leaving without a deal “would basically be surrendering the strait to Iran and guaranteeing higher energy prices because Iran would be free to attack vessels and charge tolls”.
The Strait of Hormuz lies in Iran’s territorial waters, but is viewed as an international waterway and is normally open to all ships. Iran has imposed a selective blockade on the channel, making deals with some friendly nations to secure safe passage since the war erupted – a move it now hopes to enshrine in law.
