The authors say AUKUS will deter China by placing more nuclear attack submarines in the Pacific, even if they lack nuclear warheads, as Australia’s will. It would also enable US and UK submarines to patrol elsewhere as circumstances demanded, troubling Moscow.
Mattis, Payne and the others acknowledge problems with AUKUS, particularly the second pillar of the program under which members are supposed to co-operate on emerging defence technologies.
Then defence secretary James Mattis with US President Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in 2018.Credit: Bloomberg
Such co-operation requires sharing data and technologies which are usually highly protected: the authors say this part of AUKUS is “operationally adrift”, and more must be done to break down those barriers.
They also contend that sticking with AUKUS is symbolically important at a time when the US’s credibility as a reliable ally and partner is being questioned around the world. “Washington should thus do more than just recommit to AUKUS. It should revitalise the pact for the decades ahead,” they say.
While the essay is unlikely to be read personally by Trump, who prefers television, it is certain to catch the attention of key decision-makers in the administration, including the undersecretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby, who is leading the Pentagon’s review of AUKUS, and his deputy Alexander Velez-Green.
Colby has written for Foreign Affairs himself, arguing in a 2022 essay that the US should be doing much more to prepare for a potential war with China over Taiwan by redirecting military assets away from other spheres – such as Europe and the Middle East – to the Indo-Pacific.
Richard Marles meets with J.D. Vance and Pete Hegseth (right) in Washington.Credit: X
That is now central to the Pentagon’s concerns about AUKUS, chiefly its desire for more information about if and how Australia would use the submarines in a conflict with China over Taiwan or other issues.
One of the strongest advocates of AUKUS in the US Congress, Democratic representative from Connecticut Joe Courtney, also authored an opinion piece on the weekend saying that abandoning or truncating the deal would “be met with great rejoicing in Beijing”.
Writing in National Interest magazine, Courtney said Colby should look past the current production tally of Virginia-class submarines because significant investments in the maritime industrial base were coming to fruition and would be paying dividends in the 2030s.
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The essays underscore the substantial fears in the political and military establishments of all three AUKUS countries that Trump will back away from the Joe Biden-era deal.
They also come at a time of frayed relations after a mangled visit to Washington last week by Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles.
While Marles met Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, his encounter with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth remains under a cloud of mystery.
After Australian officials released photographs of Marles and Hegseth, the Pentagon initially described it as a “happenstance encounter” rather than a proper meeting. But a spokesman later issued a statement saying the meeting was co-ordinated in advance. This masthead reported the encounter lasted about 10 minutes.
The Pentagon was contacted for comment on the Foreign Affairs essay. It has previously said its review of the AUKUS pact will be completed in the fall, which could mean any time between now and Christmas.
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