Startling charts reveal how world’s most infectious disease is poised to engulf America
America is poised for a measles explosion if vaccine rates continue to fall at their current pace, scientists warn.
Striking graphs show there could be more than 11.1 million infections over the next 25 years – 444,000 per year – and roughly 30,000 deaths if vaccination coverage dropped 10 percent.
Research from Stanford University estimates that just a five percent decline in coverage with the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) would lead to an estimated 5.7 million measles cases and at least 2,500 deaths over the next 25 years.
That’s the equivalent of 228,000 cases and 320 deaths each year.
And in a devastating scenario, a 50 percent decline in vaccinations could flood the country with the life-threatening disease, potentially leading to 51 million cases, including 10.3 million hospitalizations and between 151,200 and 164,700 deaths.
For context, the US has confirmed 5,567 measles cases over the past 25 years, averaging 223 per year. In 2019 alone, there were nearly 1,300 cases; in 2020, just 13.
If rates stay where they are, the US could lose its measles elimination status within two decades.
The MMR vaccine, 97 percent effective at preventing measles, dramatically lowers the risk of severe illness. Yet 96 percent of annual cases occur in unvaccinated people, with one in five hospitalized and three in 1,000 dying.
Stanford research projects that if vaccinations dip by just five percent, the case count of measles could jump to 5.7 million with 2,550 deaths over the next 25 years. In the worst-case scenario, if vaccination coverage were to plummet by 50 percent, cases could exceed 51 million with between 150,000 and 164,000 deaths
The US is facing its largest measles outbreak in 30 years, centered in Gaines and Lubbock counties, West Texas, where just 74 percent and 92 percent of children are vaccinated, respectively.
Texas has confirmed 728 measles cases so far, with over 400 in Gaines County alone. Two children in Texas and one in New Mexico have died. New Mexico has reported 71 cases.
Statewide, Texas’ MMR vaccination rate sits at 94 percent, just below the 95 percent needed for herd immunity — but in parts of West Texas, rates are far lower.
In Gaines County’s Loop Independent School District, only 46 percent of kindergarteners are vaccinated.
Gaines County also leads the state in vaccine opt-outs, with nearly 14 percent of schoolchildren skipping at least one required shot last year.
The outbreak centering on Gaines County has since spread to dozens of other states, offering researchers a grim preview of what could happen nationwide if vaccination rates drop to West Texas levels.
The Stanford team, whose data was published in JAMA Network, used a computer model for their projections — incorporating randomness to reflect real-world uncertainty.
They drew on US Census, CDC surveillance, and National Immunization Survey data from 2004 to 2023.
Falling vaccination rates accelerate measles’ return. Just a five percent drop halves the time until endemic spread, while 10 percent+ declines push the US toward outbreaks within years.
The model compared outcomes under current vaccination rates – 87 to 95 percent – and scenarios with rates increased or decreased by five, 10, 25, and 100 percent.
Even small declines in coverage could spark major outbreaks.
Measles was declared eliminated in the US four decades after a vaccine became available — a feat estimated to have saved 94 million lives — but experts fear that progress is slipping.
Dr William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told DailyMail.com: ‘We are now in danger of losing the elimination designation, and we were well ahead of the world before.’
More than 1,020 measles cases have been confirmed in 31 states this year, with 92 percent linked to 14 outbreaks.
Dr Schaffner added: ‘Given that the current outbreak continues and its now spawned “daughter” outbreaks among other Mennonite communities and there are yet other small outbreaks, we could potentially lose that elimination status.
‘Here we are stepping back to yesteryear.’
The gradually rising case count coincides with a rise in vaccine exemptions for religious reasons in schools.
Measles typically causes high fever, cough, and a splotchy rash, but serious complications like encephalitis (brain swelling) occur in about 1 in 1,000 children
In 2014, the exemption rate was about 1.7 percent, before a 2015 measles outbreak at Disneyland drew national attention to falling vaccination rates.
By 2016, exemptions rose to two percent, despite moves by states like California to eliminate personal belief exemptions.
The trend continued, reaching 2.5 percent in 2019 — the year the U.S. saw its highest measles case count since 1992, largely in under-vaccinated communities.
The pandemic further disrupted vaccination efforts, pushing exemptions to 2.8 percent in 2021.
By 2023, rates climbed to 3.5 percent, with MMR coverage in kindergarteners dipping below the 95 percent threshold needed for herd immunity.
Vaccine skeptics meanwhile have risen to positions of power, including Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has promoted discredited claims linking the MMR vaccine to autism and founded the leading anti-vaccine group, Children’s Health Defense.
CDC and JAMA data suggest exemptions could soon top 4 percent, particularly in rural areas with limited healthcare access and public health distrust, as well as affluent, well-educated urban enclaves drawn to ‘alternative’ medicine.
Vaccine exemptions for public school students are on track to top four percent, up from 1.7 percent a decade ago
‘Parents who withhold their children from vaccination are not randomly scattered throughout the population, they generally cluster, which means you have a close affiliation in schools, which makes people susceptible. And should the virus be introduced in their group, it will rapidly spread,’ Dr Schaffner said.
Most people with measles develop a high fever, cough, and a blotchy red rash. But serious complications aren’t rare.
About 1 in 1,000 children develop encephalitis — dangerous brain swelling that can cause permanent damage.
A rare, delayed complication called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) strikes about 2 in every 100,000 measles cases.
Years after infection, it causes memory problems, personality changes, seizures, and worsening brain function, progressing to a vegetative state and death.
