Tens of thousands more people will die from wildfires across the United States in the coming 25 years, new research has warned.
Some 70,000 deaths were projected each year by mid-century – a more than 70 percent increase from roughly 40,000 annual deaths currently attributed to wildfire smoke.
Western states will be most impacted with the largest number of projected deaths in California at 5,060. But the second highest number of deaths will be in New York state, some 1,810, the researchers warned.
But no community will be safe from smoke exposure, said the cross-country research team. In recent years, smoke from western Canadian wildfires traveled thousands of miles to eastern U.S. states, turning skies over New York City an ominous burnt orange.
“There are larger increases on the West Coast, but there’s also long-range transport of wildfire smoke across the country, including massive recent smoke events in the eastern and midwestern U.S. from Canadian fires,” Minghao Qiu, an assistant professor at Stony Brook University in New York, explained in a statement.
What’s more, leaders are not making policy decisions with all the information that’s needed to address risks, the scientists said.
“Our study shows climate models are missing a huge part of the climate impacts in the U.S. – it’s like leaving the main character out of a movie,” Qiu noted.
While wildfires often start in rural places, hotter temperatures and drier conditions caused by the climate crisis mean blazes grow larger and more unpredictable than ever before.
When they consume urban areas, wildfires send up toxic smoke that’s a mix of chemicals and particle pollution, called PM2.5, which can settle deep in the lungs and enter the bloodstream. PM2.5 has been linked to an increased risk of heart disease, and developing dementia and bladder, skin, and lung cancer.
Children, the elderly, pregnant women, and those with chronic conditions are particularly at risk. In January, fires in Los Angeles resulted in a 16-fold rise in hospital visits for smoke exposure, burns and other fire-related injuries, according to The Los Angeles Times.
Wildfire smoke can result in deaths for up to three years after the fire has been put out.
Thousands of these deaths could be avoided if countries limit the carbon emissions being produced by the fossil fuel industry, and stave off worsening global temperature rise.
“These are projections. They are not what’s going to happen, necessarily,” Marshall Burke, a professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, told The New York Times. “But what happens is a choice, and so these don’t have to be an inevitability.”
In the meantime, the scientists suggest two steps that can be taken immediately to better protect communities.
Improving air flow indoors by using filters can help vulnerable individuals stay safe. And firefighters and forest managers can reduce the risk with prescribed burns that cut down levels of dead vegetation that could fuel the next big wildfire.
