Terrifying data reveals exact date when US’ natural-born population will ‘go extinct’
America’s natural-born population could edge toward extinction in just 500 years, startling new data suggests.
Not taking into account immigration or major changes in death rates, statisticians predict this group could be cut by at least one-third every 75 years.
This, economist Dr Abigail Hall told DailyMail.com, is a clear sign the US is heading toward a ‘detrimental’ crisis.
Based on the current trends, recent Census data predicts the natural-born population in the US will be back to levels of the post-Civil War era in the next 300 years, with just 60million people.
And around the year 2600, this population could dwindle to only 10million, a number not seen since the early 1800s when the country bounced back from the Revolutionary War.
Dr Hall highlights America’s flailing fertility rate, which was laid bare in a report last month by the CDC.
The report found women on average had 1.6 births each in 2023, well below the 2.1 needed to sustain population growth.
Political leaders are warning of dire consequences.
Experts believe America’s population is declining largely due to rapidly decreasing fertility rates. In fact, figures suggest women today are having 50 percent fewer children than their grandmothers (stock image)
Elon Musk – who has 14 children with four different women – called the decline ‘the biggest threat to civilization’ and has warned it ‘will lead to mass extinction of entire nations.’
Vice President JD Vance has also claimed that ‘our people aren’t having enough children to replace themselves. That should bother us.’
The American birth rate has become so dire that the White House has proposed offering a $5,000 ‘baby bonus’ to every US mother after she gives birth.
The CDC data shows women on average in 2023 are having 25 percent fewer children than their mothers and 50 percent fewer than their grandmothers.
Teenagers have seen the largest drop in pregnancies, with rates decreasing by nearly 75 percent in the past 30 years.
Births among women in their twenties have dropped by nearly one-third.
Young Americans have cited rising costs, focusing on their careers and even climate change as reasons for putting off having kids or not having them at all.
However, recent research also suggests a surge in health issues like obesity and growing levels of hormone-warping chemicals in our food packaging, water, and clothing is causing widespread infertility.
Economists told DailyMail.com that while the US has not seen a ‘downward trend economically’ in the way countries like South Korea, Japan, or Germany have, the effects of depopulation in the US would be ‘detrimental.’
They fear depopulation would put a significant strain on the job market and drastically reduce the number of workers in the country. This would drive up the cost of goods.
Based on the current rate of decline, US Census data predicts by 2100, the population will dip from 330million to around 226million.
Another 75 years after that, the amount of Americans could by one-third again to 140million, a level not seen since the late 1940s.
Most of the money – $435 billion – is needed to fix existing roads, with additional funds ($125 billion) for expanding and improving the transportation system ($225 billion).
And by 2625, there could be just under 10million Americans left, a number not seen since Thomas Jefferson was elected the third president of the United States.
And regardless of immigration, the population will naturally start falling by 2080, the Census Bureau predicts.
While America’s natural-born population has been on the decline since the late 1950s, the end of the Baby Boom, the overall population increased from about 170million to 330million in that same time.
This is thanks to immigrants coming into the country.
Since 1965, when the Immigration and Nationality Act opened immigration up to people coming from Asia and Latin America and allowed more immigrants to enter the US legally, about 72million immigrants have come to the US.
Based on current trends, the US Census Bureau suggests immigrants may outnumber natural-born citizens by 2065.
The above chart from the CDC’s latest report shows how the fertility rate has fallen below the population replacement level
The above CDC map shows the number of births over time by age group
Population decline can also be blamed on American women having fewer children. The latest CDC data also found that the total births per year decreased from about 4.1million in 1990 to 3.5million in 2023.
The decline was sharpest in teen mothers, with births dropping 73 percent in 2023 compared to 1990.
Women ages 20 to 24 had 476,760 fewer births in 2023 than 1990, a 44 percent decline, and those ages 25 to 29 had 290,541 fewer births, a 23 percent drop.
While births decreased in all age groups below age 30, women in their thirties and forties are having more children than previous decades.
The data shows women ages 30 to 24 had 211,989 more births in 2023 than in 1990, a 24 percent increase, and women ages 35 to 39 birthed 287,048 more children, a surge of 90 percent.
Even women 40 and older had 96,809 more births in 2023 than in 1990. This is a surge of 193 percent.
The US is one of many countries facing a fertility crisis, and other parts of the world may offer a grim look at what’s to come for America.
In 2022, Italy’s fertility rate fell to 1.2 births per woman. Sardinia, an Italian island, had an even lower rate of 0.95.
The above map shows the decline in US fertility compared to the UK, Italy and Korea
CDC data found that about half of babies in the US are born to women over 30, while births to younger moms have declined
South Korea’s birth rate has also been falling for decades, hitting a historic low of 0.72 before in 2023 before rising slightly to 0.75 last year. This is the lowest fertility rate in the world.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates if current forecasts hold up, 2064 will be the first year in modern history where the global death rate surpasses the birth rate.
Dr Hall, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, told DailyMail.com: ‘Economically speaking, depopulation is detrimental for economic growth.’
Experts have warned that as the US population dwindles, there will be fewer people to pay off the nation’s debt.
For example, the Heritage Foundation estimates a baby born in 2007 will assume $30,500 in debt. However, a baby born in 2020 will assume $59,000.
Dr Hall said: ‘One thing people would probably witness is that it’s going to be harder to find people to fill jobs.’
Older moms were most common in Washington DC, with 24.5 per 1,000 births being to women ages 40 to 44
Declining birth rates also mean the supply of workers in countries like the US, UK, Italy, and South Korea will quickly diminish.
In the 1960s, for instance, there were six people of working age for every retired person globally, according to the World Economic Forum. That ratio is now about three-to-one, and by 2035, it’s expected to shrink further to two-to-one.
As a result, businesses may struggle with production, causing supply to decrease, which raises costs.
Samantha Karlin, a women’s rights expert who runs the course Women’s Leadership Challenge, told DailyMail.com that the rising costs of childcare and lack of consistent parental leave in the US could be part of the reason why couples are delaying having children.
She said: ‘It’s important to point out that the US doesn’t have any federally mandated paid leave whatsoever, only 12 weeks of mandated unpaid leave.
‘Companies can make their own decisions as to whether or not to provide paid leave, and how much to extend to mothers versus fathers.’
She also pointed out that only one policy, the Federal Employee Paid Leave Act, mandates parental leave in the US, and this is reserved only for government workers.
The above map shows the decline in fertility rate in all 50 states. Utah had the steepest decline, whereas Louisiana’s rate decreased the least
The above map shows fertility rates by state in 2022. The rates were highest in South Dakota, Alaska and Nebraska
Carlin points to countries like Finland as an example from the US, as both parents are entitled to just over five months of parental leave.
She also notes childcare costs max out around $275 for the country’s highest earners.
Meanwhile, according to the Center for American Progress, daycare can cost up to $2,400 per month for just one child in the US, depending on the facility and state.
Carlin said: ‘This is crazy considering the median income for a family of three in the US is around $71,000 as of 2021. That means that daycare for one child can cost almost half of a family’s income.
‘It is no wonder that families are opting to have less children in America, because the cost can bankrupt a family.’
Dr Hall suggests instead of one-time payments like those the Trump administration is said to be considering, lawmakers should look at ways to lower ‘regulatory barriers which are preventing more child care options for parents.’
This would include day care subsidies and more paid parental leave.
Policies such as these, she said, have been successful in European countries, though it’s unclear how dramatically they would affect the US birthrate.
However, Dr Hall cautioned it may still be several decades before the US fertility crisis reaches the level of countries like South Korea.
She said: ‘We’ve still had a growing population because of immigration, so we have not seen a shift or a downward trend economically in the way that, say, Korea, Japan or Germany has, because we’ve supplanted our population through immigration.
‘To the extent that immigration continues into the US, then we may not see the direct results of the declining birth rate here, but to the extent that immigration is stymied or cut off, then we could certainly see these effects in the future.’
