Tropical Storm Lowell projected to strike Hawaii as hurricane-ravaged state braces for impact

Tropical Storm Lowell has erupted in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters fear it could be headed straight for Hawaii at hurricane strength.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that Lowell had formed Thursday afternoon, with sustained winds of more than 45 mph, over 1,500 miles southeast of the Hawaiian islands.

Early prediction models project that Lowell will not only strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday, but also head directly towards Hawaii, potentially making landfall in the coming days.

Spaghetti models, which track all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, show multiple tracks where the storm barrels directly into Hawaii’s Big Island and the state’s most populated areas, including Maui, Molokaʻi, Lanaʻi and Oʻahu. 

More than one million people are spread out across the state, particularly in Honolulu, Waikiki, Kahului and Kihei.

Lowell would be the third tropical cyclone to threaten Hawaii in the last three weeks, following the near-miss by Tropical Storm Moke on August 22 and the devastating impact of Hurricane Lala on August 15.

Residents on Hawaii’s Big Island, also known as Hawaiʻi Island, are still recovering from Lala, which destroyed over 100 homes in floods and mudslides and killed at least two people.

Meteorologists with AccuWeather warned that the Pacific hurricane season could be unusually active, resulting in multiple direct hits on the Hawaiian islands.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in May: ‘Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency.’

‘Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year.’

The last time multiple storms impacted Hawaii in the span of two weeks was a decade ago, when Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester passed over the state in 2016. 

Currently, the so-called European forecasting model, also known as the EPS Ensemble, has predicted that Lowell will continue heading west into next week, before turning north and spiraling into the Big Island.

NHC, which as only released forecasting data through Wednesday, September 2, believes Lowell will still be a hurricane at that time, meaning it will have sustained winds greater than 75 mph.

It is important to note that forecasting models can shift dramatically once hurricanes form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets.

The barrage of tropical storms and hurricanes passing the islands is believed to have been fueled by the emergence of a ‘Super’ El Niño in the Pacific, which has sent sea-surface temperatures skyrocketing.

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that simply means that the Pacific Ocean has become noticeably warmer than its historical average. A Super El Niño means those temperatures have risen by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2.0 degrees Celsius).

This has flipped weather patterns around the world, creating an intense, storm-friendly environment in the Pacific, while dampening the ability of hurricanes to form in the Atlantic.

Warmer waters provide fuel for tropical cyclones to build up into much bigger storms and maintain their size over greater distances.

At the same time, there is less vertical wind shear in the Pacific, meaning hurricanes are not as easily torn apart by disruptive winds blowing in various directions at different altitudes.

Forecasters with AccuWeather predicted at the beginning of hurricane season that there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific from May 15 through November 30.

Between nine and 13 of those were projected to be hurricanes, and as many as eight were predicted to reach ‘major hurricane’ status at Category 3 or greater.

So far, there have already been 14 named tropical storms or hurricanes throughout the eastern and central Pacific.

Police in Hawaii have blamed the impact of Hurricane Lala for the deaths of one woman and one man found outdoors on the Big Island.

The storm, whose eye was just 30 miles off the coast when it passed the state, caused an estimated $3-5 billion in destruction.