Donald Trump is set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Alaska in what the US president has said may be little more than a “look see” but in truth may prove to be a meeting that defines Europe, and global security, for decades.
From Trump’s perspective, the summit may be part of his drive for a Nobel Peace Prize, by ending Putin’s war against Ukraine using the ‘art of the deal’. Putin, however, is likely to prevail and his agenda is the art of the steal – specifically a massive grab of his neighbour’s land.
Missing from the meeting is the country most affected – Ukraine itself. Led by Volodymyr Zelensky, it has held out against the Kremlin for 11 years.
Trump, Putin, and many others (including parts of the media) seem to think that Ukraine’s future can be decided by the two nuclear powers and then presented to Kyiv as a done deal.
Europe, the region most affected by what happens in Ukraine, has worked hard to underline that that is neither true nor sensible – while simultaneously keeping the mercurial US President “on side” when every indication is that he’s firmly in Russia’s camp.
Here’s how things now stand.
In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in return for written guarantees from Russia, the US and UK to respected Ukrainian sovereignty.
In 2014, Russia ignored those guarantees and invaded the Crimean Peninsular, claiming the land for itself and the right to protect Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.
Russia annexed Crimea illegally, and sponsored “rebels” and also sent troops into eastern Ukraine to capture large areas of Lukhansk and Donetsk oblasts (provinces).
The US, Europe and the UK did nothing to help or protect Ukraine – even banning lethal arms exports to the embattled nation.
In 2022, Putin went one further launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine. He was stunned that it stalled and then failed. Limited weapons supplies came from the US and UK which helped partisans and Ukrainian forces hold the Russians back and then turn them around.
Ferocious fighting has turned the frontlines into a “meat grinder” conflict of attrition but Ukraine did manage in the summer of 2022 to recapture large areas of territory.
Russia now holds almost all of Luhansk oblast, much of Donetsk, a significant area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and all of Crimea.
Ukraine has a toe hold inside Russian territory in Kursk – and has been conducting punishing attacks deep into Russia territory.
