In the Middle East, however, notions of victory are never simplistic, which brings us to the pathologies of conflicts past. Iraq is a bloody reminder that military operations intended to be relatively short and uncomplicated can turn into forever wars. Mission creep, which has haunted America since the quagmire of Vietnam, is a clear and present danger.
Trump surely knows this, despite his bluster on social media, which explains why the Americans have indicated to Iran they are not pushing for regime change. Part of the reason for his shock victory in 2016 was his promise of extricating America from foreign entanglements. But 10 years ago, when he came down the golden escalator to launch his bid for the White House, he also warned: “I will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.” Though he taps into a 250-year-old strain of American isolationism, it has always been a mistake to regard him as a traditional American isolationist.
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The scale of US involvement will depend on how Iran retaliates. And here, Tehran’s capabilities have been massively degraded. Israel has decapitated two key proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad has been deposed and replaced by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who met Trump this year in Saudi Arabia – the first high-level Syria meeting in a quarter-century. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are closely allied with Iran, have targeted Israel with missiles and disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, but their capacity to mount reprisal attacks has also been degraded by a series of US airstrikes since Trump took office.
When, in January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of the top Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, the response from Tehran was unexpectedly feeble. Its militia groups fired missiles at bases hosting US forces in Iraq, wounding dozens of US troops, but the attack appeared deliberately calibrated not to provoke a massive American response. That recent history has emboldened Trump. And Iran was a more formidable foe in January 2020 than it is in June 2025.
Still, tens of thousands of US troops are stationed in the broader Middle East, and Iran has a potential target list of 20 US bases in the region. It could mine the Strait of Hormuz and drive up oil prices. There is also the fear of an unconventional attack, such as swarm drone assaults on US warships, or terror strikes. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet, and Israel’s exploding pager operation on Hezbollah, demonstrated it is not just ballistic missiles which are devastating.
Unpredictability is the watchword of Trump 2.0. There is, though, a known known. Wars are a lot easier to start than they are to end.
Nick Bryant, a former BBC Washington correspondent, is the author of The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself.
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