Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
As protests grow and public dissatisfaction increases, the political landscape of Turkey is undergoing significant changes. Youth, who have been historically supportive of President Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), are increasingly turning toward opposition parties, marking a potential shift in Turkey’s political dynamic.
Opposition’s Growing Influence
The Turkish opposition plans to hold at least 50 rallies demanding the release of Istanbul’s mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu. The second condition set by the opposition is the call for early elections, according to the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Özgür Özel, in an interview with the Sözcü newspaper.
“I perceive the actions taken by the authorities as a declaration of war. We are responding as we would in a war. We are fighting, organizing defenses, showing courage, and launching counterattacks,” explained Özel, further clarifying the CHP’s stance.
Opposition’s Constitutional and Democratic Approach
Despite their fierce opposition, the CHP remains committed to constitutional and democratic methods. Their actions are driven by the belief in moral and psychological superiority in defending their point of view. In response to government actions, CHP activists and university students have called for boycotting brands associated with the ruling party, including pro-government news channels and a coffee chain, sparking sharp criticism from the government. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat accused boycott organizers of trying to undermine Turkey’s economy. According to official data, over 1,000 people have been arrested in connection with recent protests, including many prominent figures, such as well-known actors.
Shifting Public Opinion
Although the protests may seem to have slowed down, the anti-Erdoğan sentiment appears to be taking more tangible shape. According to a sociological survey conducted by the Ank-Ar polling company between April 4-8, nearly one-third (29%) of Turkey’s economically active population aged 18-29 would vote for the leading opposition party, CHP, if general elections were held tomorrow. In contrast, only 15.9% of the same age group would support the ruling AKP. The far-right Victory Party ranked third with 12.8%. Notably, 14.5% of young citizens remained undecided or indicated they would not vote.
The March 2025 survey showed the CHP ahead of the AKP by only 2.1 percentage points. However, by April, the CHP’s lead had increased significantly to 13.1 percentage points.
The Changing Turkish Landscape
The results of sociological surveys, while not always publicized, indicate that Erdoğan’s political system is facing significant challenges. The growing calls for a fundamental shift in Turkey’s development paradigm suggest that the public is dissatisfied with the status quo. Notably, Erdoğan has not only alienated secularists but also many conservatives, including key figures like İlhami Ortaylı, the former director of the Topkapi Museum. Ortaylı recently warned that Turkey is facing a demographic crisis exacerbated by ongoing regional conflicts: “We are on the brink of a social catastrophe, while the government is bringing Syrians into Turkey.”
Regional Divides and Ethnic Issues
The opposition’s rising popularity is not just a matter of ideological divides but also regional and ethnic tensions. A closer look at Turkey’s election maps shows that urban coastal regions, including major cities like Istanbul, İzmir, and the capital Ankara, overwhelmingly support the opposition. In contrast, Erdoğan’s AKP maintains strong support in the deeply conservative heartland of Anatolia.
One significant factor in this equation is the Kurdish question. Kurdish political parties, such as the secular Democratic Party of the Peoples (DEM) and the religiously conservative Hudapar, hold considerable influence. Their support could potentially tip the balance in Erdoğan’s favor if they align with the ruling coalition. Erdoğan’s recent attempts to engage with Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), suggest that the government may be trying to secure a peace agreement to bolster its political position. However, tensions remain, as the PKK’s demands, including the release of Öcalan, have been consistently rejected by Ankara.
The Future of Turkish Politics
The long-standing Kurdish issue, coupled with growing regional and demographic disparities, creates a complex political environment for Turkey. Any substantive resolution will likely require constitutional reforms, including the recognition of minority rights and possibly greater autonomy for Kurdish-majority regions. Such reforms are expected to face fierce resistance from nationalists and religious conservatives who support Erdoğan.
The current state of Turkish politics is nearing a pivotal moment, where both opposing coalitions are solidifying their positions for a decisive clash. The question remains: will Turkey find a political figure capable of bridging the deep divides within society, or will Erdoğan’s approach continue to fuel internal conflict?
