Viktor Orbán faces reckoning as Hungary heads to the polls – and Trump’s support may have sealed his fate
Viktor Orbán had led Hungary through four years of recession and recovery when he chose to unveil his grand plan for an “illiberal democracy” at a cultural event in Romania in 2014.
In his most consequential speech as leader, he argued that the financial crisis of 2008 had exposed holes in the liberal project and that a strong state, no longer bound to obsess over personal freedoms, was Hungary’s future.
“Just because something is not liberal, it still can be a democracy,” he said, prophetically.
Twelve years later and the country he leads has changed profoundly. Orbán, now aged 62, has cast himself as a defender of the country’s cultural identity, imposing some of Europe’s toughest asylum rules and limiting gay rights while offering families generous handouts to reverse falling birth rates.
In this he has become Europe’s clearest internal threat to its values of free speech, the rule of law and tolerance.
His system now faces its most stern test yet. Hungary heads to the polls on Sunday for an election in which Orbán is expected to lose.
With his tough talk on immigration and emphasis on restoring the “Christian family”, Orbán attracted the backing of Donald Trump.
MAGA and Fidesz have since become kindred ideological spirits, with Washington throwing its weight behind Orbán and sending vice president JD Vance to campaign on his behalf this week. Such an intervention in a European election would have been unthinkable in a previous US administration.
But paradoxically, the backing of the world’s most powerful man may have sealed Orbán’s fate, as Trump’s ‘America First’ policies continue to hurt European economies.
Polls carried out after Vance’s high-profile visit this week showed the incumbent leader’s performance drop.
Waiting in the wings is Peter Magyar, a former insider of Orbán’s Fidesz party who emerged as a rival only in 2024.
Magyar earned support by successfully tapping into growing public discontent with years of economic stagnation and corruption.
The 45 year-old says it is “now or never” to reverse the damage wrought by Fidesz. But analysts caution that a victory for his Tisza party is unlikely to see the pendulum immediately swing back to a liberal democracy.
Orbán has spent the last few months attempting to discredit his opponents, while laying on the strength of relations with the Trump and Vladimir Putin under his leadership. Few leaders can boast to have the support of both in 2026.
