All eyes this weekend, then, will be on the margins, rather than the overall winner. Analysts are seeing a trend. Another round of tightening, maybe even a flipped constituency or two, will send more shudders through the party and its prime minister, Lawrence Wong, who has been in the job for a year and is still establishing himself with the public and colleagues.
“If [the PAP] manages to pick up to 65 per cent, I reckon he’ll be content that he’s safe in the job for a while,” Barr says.
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong inspects honour guards in Malaysia in January.Credit: AP
The PAP has won every election in a landslide since 1959, trading off the “Singapore miracle”. In a region pocked with poverty, coups and instability, this small nation-state of about 6 million people has been a raging economic success. “From Third World to First World in a single generation,” PAP candidates like to say.
As a measure of stability, consider that Wong, 52, is only Singapore’s fourth prime minister in six decades of independence.
The public pays him a salary of $S2.2 million ($2.6 million), and ministers average about $S1.1 million. This is the bargain – get the best, do a good job.
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But like other nations, Singapore, which is already one of the most expensive cities in the world, is grappling with cost-of-living pressures and finding ways to fund social services. In addition, the PAP has suffered a series of damaging scandals, while younger generations, aided by technology and self-publishing, are increasingly demanding freedoms.
“The other thing is that when Lee Hsien Loong became prime minister (2004-24), he jacked up the inflow of foreign workers and single-handedly turned immigration into a toxic issue for the government,” Barr says.
“There’s a scepticism towards the PAP now, even if it’s not hostility. And a bit of sneering at them – drawing so much money, millions of dollars in salary, and what do you get for it?”
The unpredictable decision-making of US President Donald Trump has cast a new pall over Singapore. Like Australia, it has escaped the worst of Trump’s threats, but any damage to global trade would be compounded in a shipping and financial hub like this.
The PAP is trying to use this to its advantage with the old message: “Who do you trust in uncertain times?” If the opposition were to eat further into PAP’s overwhelming majority – and, God forbid, wipe out a few experienced ministers – the party says, this would make governing much more difficult.
A tightly regulated protest against Singapore’s liberally dispensed death penalty.Credit: Zach Hope
Will Singaporeans buy the line?
“If the prime minister is saying ‘we need 90 per cent of the seats, and only then we can govern properly’, I think we have a very weak PAP already to begin with,” WP leader Pritam Singh, himself embroiled in a legal scandal, said.
The vote has been looming in Singapore for some time – it had to be held by November – but for those conditioned to Australia’s drawn-out campaigns, it has all seemed rather frantic.
The official period started barely a week ago, only once the parties had declared their candidates. The short turnaround has meant a flurry of competing rallies – seven on Wednesday night alone.
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This is not to say there weren’t signs the election was coming. One of them was the March redrawing (gerrymandering, critics say) of electoral boundaries by a committee chaired by none other than the prime minister’s secretary.
Another was compounding promises of cash, subsidies and other assorted handouts.
“We know the election is coming because the government is giving the old people money,” one ageing Singaporean told me a few months back. “They are very smart, the Singapore government.”
That, at least, might sound familiar.
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