Four favourites have emerged to succeed Pope Francis but the uncertainty around whether any candidate has sufficient support has meant that it is one of the most wide open conclaves in history.
According to insiders cardinals Pietro Parolin (Secretary of State), Peter Erdov (Hungary), Jean-Marc Aveline (France) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem) are the frontrunners.
But more than a dozen others are in the running. In particular, cardinals Cristóbal López Romero (Morocco) and Robert Prevost (an American Vatican insider) are rising as possible dark horse alternatives to Aveline.
Much will depend on whether the largest and most powerful faction of the late Pope Francis’ closest supporters – the “Bergoglian” faction (in reference to Francis’ surname) – decide to fall in behind one candidate or support the Secretary of State Cardinal Parolin.
But the death of Pope Francis set in motion a centuries-old ritual involving sacred oaths, performed by the cardinals who will elect his successor.
The process of electing a new Pope is shrouded in secrecy, with cardinals forbidden from communicating with the outside world what happens in the conclave, which takes place within the frescoed walls of the Sistine Chapel.
The pontiff’s age, along with his health concerns in recent years – including his recent complex lung infection – led to questions being asked well before his death about who would succeed him.
As is always the case, in the months and years prior to the death of a pope, a selection of candidates known as papabile emerge as the frontrunners to become the new leader of the Catholic Church.
The Vatican will convene a papal conclave from Wednesday 7 May, in which the College of Cardinals comes together to elect the Church’s next head.
The rules of the conclave, as of 22 January 2025, state that of the 252 cardinals, 138 qualify as electors. Only those under the age of 80 may take part in the secret ballot in the Sistine Chapel.
Four rounds of voting take place every day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, in a process that typically lasts around 15 to 20 days, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
The belief is that the Holy Spirit will move the conclave to find the worthy successor to St Peter.
There are already a number of well-known cardinals whose names have been informally put forward to fill the role. In 2020, Edward Pentin released an authoritative book on the topic, titled The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates.
But candidates known as papabile have risen and fallen even since the publication of that book. Favourites entering the conclave rarely emerge as Pope, which has spawned the Italian adage: “Enter the conclave as Pope and leave as a cardinal.”
