With the final weekend of the 77th Cannes Film Festival in sight, it’s time to project who gets the biggest launching pad for the upcoming Oscar season by walking away with the coveted Palme d’Or.
Based on critical reception, audience ovations, and speaking with several sources on the ground and close to the jury members, a handful of films have clearly separated themselves from the pack — none more so than “Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier’s incisive father-daughter drama that’s become the buzziest title on the Croisette.
Distributed by Neon, which is aiming for an unprecedented sixth consecutive Palme win — after “Parasite,” “Titane,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Anora” — “Sentimental Value” received the most enthusiastic standing ovation of the festival. Trier, a Cannes veteran whose “The Worst Person in the World” nabbed Best Actress in 2021, seems poised for a coronation.
However, could it be that easy?
Let’s break it all down of the major contenders and predictions for the top awards based on jury dynamics, critic scores and on-the-ground buzz.
“Sentimental Value”
Kasper Tuxen / Mubi
Palme d’Or
Prediction: “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier)
Remember, this is a game of chess. Typically, the jury doesn’t hand out more than one major prize to a movie, so we’re trying to figure out what can win a certain category, if it’s not in contention in another.
Trier’s emotional drama about a woman reconnecting with her estranged father has moved audiences and critics. The jury, led by Juliette Binoche, includes emotional storytellers who might warm to this type of film such as Jeremy Strong and Halle Berry. Stars Elle Fanning, Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård could find themselves in contention for acting prizes, and the film’s rare blend of intimate storytelling and themes could resonate with jury members like Payal Kapadia and Leïla Slimani.
Runners-up:
- “Sound of Falling” (Mascha Schilinski) – A multigenerational German saga that has stuck with viewers long after its early screening. Mubi’s acquisition and strong reviews suggest it’s a real contender. (predicted Grand Prix)
- “Nouvelle Vague” (Richard Linklater) – Vintage Linklater in the best way. Critics have lauded its warm, cerebral portrait of artistic reinvention. Zoey Deutch’s performance and the tight script keep it in contention. (predicted Jury Prize)
- “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi) – Panahi’s first film since his release from prison is politically charged, subtle and devastating. It might sneak to the top with Neon behind it and global relevance baked in.
- “Die, My Love” (Lynne Ramsay) – A $24 million Mubi pickup and emotional knockout, with Jennifer Lawrence earning career-best reviews. Even with divisive reviews, don’t count this one out.
“Nouvelle Vague”
Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival
Best Director
Prediction: Richard Linklater, “Nouvelle Vague”
Linklater’s meticulous structure and narrative flow in “Nouvelle Vague” is said to be nothing short of masterful. This could be the year Cannes acknowledges his brilliance. Still, Jafar Panahi’s understated hand in “It Was Just an Accident” is right behind, if the jury doesn’t give him a special award or screenwriting.
Also in contention: Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” and Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
“Eddington”
Courtesy of A24
Special Jury Prize
Prediction: “Eddington” (Ari Aster)
Though divisive (with a low average from critics), “Eddington” seems like the type of headscratching flick to win the Special Jury Prize just to acknowledge its ambition and experimental edge — an award Cannes has previously used to honor polarizing work.
“Die My Love”
Best Actress
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
Oscar winner Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”) is said to deliver what many call her career performance in Lynne Ramsay’s feverish love story. Will the jury fall for her raw, vulnerable, and unforgettable turn?
Also in the running:
- Renate Reinsve and Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” – A dual win is possible, especially if the jury wants to reward the ensemble.
- Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague” – Said to be a charming, razor-sharp performance that could bring levity and soul to the ceremony.
“History of Sound”
Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival
Best Actor
Prediction: Paul Mescal, “The History of Sound”
At 29, Mescal wouldn’t be the youngest winner in Cannes history (that remains Yuya Yagira when he won at 12 years old for “Nobody Knows” in 2004). Still, the Oscar-nominated actor is said to bring a stirring portrayal of a sensitive soul navigating music and intimacy during wartime what many are saying is this year’s most affecting male performance. This could also give him a great headstart for Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet” later this year.
Other potentials:
- Robert Pattinson’s “Die, My Love” – A volatile, magnetic turn that says to match Lawrence beat-for-beat. Perhaps this year’s Jesse Plemons or Joaquin Phoenix?
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” – Cannes juries don’t tend to reward supporting turns but the veteran could be a dark horse.
Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival
Best Screenplay
Prediction: “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi)
Panahi’s layered script weaves political commentary into an escalating series of small events.
Close contenders: “Nouvelle Vague” (Gent, Palmo Jr., Pétin, Masson) and “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt)
Final Thoughts
With Neon holding distribution rights to three likely prize-winners — “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just an Accident” and “The Secret Agent” — the distributor has already played its hand expertly once again. Mubi, meanwhile, is making a strong case with the crowd-pleasing “Die, My Love” and early favorite “Sound of Falling.”
And then there’s the question of who will buy Linklater’s movie.
If history is any indicator, this jury — composed of artists who lean toward global storytelling, and a touch of rebellion — will spread the love across the field. But if there’s one film to bet on, “Sentimental Value” holds the strongest hand. The awards will be handed out on Saturday.
Full predictions at a glance:
Palme d’Or: “Sentimental Value”
Grand Prix: “It Was Just an Accident”
Jury Prize: “Nouvelle Vague”
Best Director: Richard Linklater, “Nouvelle Vague”
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
Best Actor: Paul Mescal, “The History of Sound”
Best Screenplay: “It Was Just an Accident”
Special Jury Prize: “Eddington”
