Why latest clash between nuclear rivals could blow up into something far more dangerous

Two weeks after a deadly terror attack in the disputed Kashmir region, India has fired missiles into Pakistan. The Indian government claims that it carried out nine “precision strikes at terrorist camps” in Kashmir as part of “Operation Sindoor”. Pakistan claims to have shot down several Indian jets and is threatening imminent retaliation. At least 34 people have been killed.

The escalation of tensions is unsurprising. As soon as the April 22 terror attack took place, Indian officials deemed Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba culpable and accused the country’s authorities of complicity.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif angrily rejected these accusations and urged the US to steer India towards a course of de-escalation. These recommendations were not heeded by New Delhi.

Now that India and Pakistan are on an escalation course, the big question is what comes next. If you’re an optimist, history suggests that a swift de-escalation could be on the cards.

The 1999 Kargil War provides a precedent for this scenario. In May of that year, Pakistani troops disguised as Kashmiri militants launched incursions into India’s side of the Line of Control. After more than 1000 casualties on both sides, India recaptured Kargil in June. The war was followed by numerous tit-for-tat attacks in the years that followed. Nevertheless, these escalations did not trigger a major war between the nuclear-armed powers in South Asia.

Despite these sanguine historical precedents, there are reasons to believe that this conflict is more dangerous.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty institutionalised water resource sharing from the Indus region’s six major rivers and has served as a crisis-proof agent of de-escalation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pausing of this treaty after the April 22 attack removed this guardrail.

Although India lacks the dam and reservoir infrastructure to store large amounts of additional water, Modi appears to be determined to cut off Pakistan’s access to water resources from the Indus River region. This resolve is interpreted in Islamabad as a non-negotiable act of war.