Instead of waiting for the new year to set weight loss goals, more and more people are embarking on weight loss journeys with popular medications beginning in the fall.
Experts say that weight gain around the holidays can take months to lose, but adopting healthy habits and starting a weight loss medication ahead of time can help guide healthier choices throughout the season, which in turn can spur weight loss.
It is far easier to avoid holiday pounds altogether than to lose them after they have accumulated, research suggests.
Fall ushers in a return to a regular, stable routine that often falls by the wayside during summer. Doctors say this time brings a reevaluation of habits and healthy behaviors that can inspire people to lose weight, which may mean taking one of the groundbreaking weight loss drugs, such as Wegovy and Zepbound.
Pairing medication with healthy behaviors augments the already impressive amount of weight people can lose on these drugs by creating a calorie deficit, maintaining muscle mass and managing side effects like nausea and bloating.
Many people adopt what experts have dubbed the ‘October theory’ because they did not lose as much weight as they wanted to before the summer and want to end the year on a more positive note.
Doctors say strategies for boosting the amount of weight loss one can lose this autumn do not have to be majorly disruptive to their lives.
They include eating more balanced meals and cooking at home, finding an activity they enjoy and can stick to several times a week and working with a dietitian, which many insurance plans cover.
The ‘October theory’ suggests people restart their efforts in the fall to end the year strong after falling short of their summer goals (stock)
In the US, about 70 percent of American adults, about 180 million people, are considered overweight or obese, including 43 percent, about 112 million adults, who are considered obese.
A 2024 survey found that one in eight American adults has taken a GLP-1 medication, including six percent who say they are currently taking such a drug.
Many users lose 10 percent or more of their body weight in about six months, though the drugs come with disruptive side effects, including nausea, diarrhea and abdominal pain.
Research since they hit the market about four years ago has also shown that people who stop taking the drugs can rapidly regain the weight they lost, because their appetite, which was previously suppressed by the drug, comes back.
A 2022 study followed GLP-1 users for two years. Those who stopped taking semaglutide, a type of GLP-1, regained a significant amount of weight, ending with an average net loss of only 5.6 percent. In contrast, a placebo group saw almost no weight change, with a net loss of just 0.1 percent.
Dr Holly Lofton, a board-certified obesity medicine physician at NYU Langone Hospital, told the New York Post: ‘For patients considering or already on GLP-1 medications, pairing them with renewed lifestyle strategies during this “reset season” can make them even more effective.
‘By making October the foundation for better routines and having the right tools on hand to manage bumps along the way, people can position themselves for long-term health improvements.’
The October theory creates a blend of anxiety and motivation, similar to the feeling people get at the start of a new year. It prompts a period of self-reflection on one’s accomplishments and remaining goals.
The graph, based on federal data, shows that more than 40 percent of US adults have obesity
Lofton also encouraged people to track their progress through the holiday season in a journal or a fitness tracking app, which can improve motivation when the temptation to indulge comes up.
She added: ‘It is crucial to prepare meticulously for these events and eating occasions, ensuring that excessive indulgence in high-fat foods, particularly fried foods and excessive amounts of cheese, is avoided, especially when combined with alcohol.
‘Commencing medication treatment at this juncture can be beneficial in mitigating appetite and cravings.’
Month-by-month sales figures for drugs people lose for weight loss, like Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound and Mounjaro, are not publicly available.
But a study conducted by Optum, the UnitedHealth prescription drug arm, found that people are more likely to start and refill prescriptions for weight-loss drugs during the cooler months of the year.
Initiation of these drugs was 18.1 percent higher, and refills were 38.2 percent higher in the fall and winter compared to the spring and summer.
A seasonal pattern was observed across all age groups and both genders, with men exhibiting a more pronounced variation than women.
Overall, prescription rates have increased by 400 percent since the introduction of these medications to the market in 2021.
These drugs work by mimicking a natural ‘fullness’ hormone and slow down digestion, so the feeling lasts longer and the person is less likely to snack
GLP-1 medications work by reducing ‘food noise,’ the constant mental preoccupation with food that makes cutting calories difficult.
By quieting this nagging urge to eat, the drugs make it easier for individuals to reduce their caloric intake.
The drugs mimic a hormone in the body that sends signals to the brain that one is full.
GLP-1s also slow down the rate at which food leaves the stomach, prolonging the feeling of fullness and reducing the urge to eat again soon after a meal.
Starting a GLP-1 before or during the holiday season can help manage appetite and cravings, providing support during a time of increased temptation and unhealthy meals and desserts.
Currently, more than half of US adults report wanting to lose weight, but only 27 percent of them are actively trying to do so through diet, exercise and/or medications.
