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India’s new deterrence doctrine
Operation Sindoor establishes India’s new deterrence against Pakistan-sponsored terror. In 2016, Indian special forces struck multiple terror launch pads across the LoC in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, 11 days after terrorists attacked an Indian army outpost at Uri in J&K, killing 19 soldiers. It was not the first cross-border raid by Indian forces, but it was publicly declared to assert a new resolve. In 2019, following the Pulwama suicide bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel, India conducted airstrikes deep inside Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, targeting a Jaish-e-Mohammed training facility.
These two surgical strikes formed the basis of India’s new deterrence against Pakistani terror, which stemmed from India’s ability to hit inside Pakistan without the risk of a full-scale conflict. But the sensational Pahalgam attack suggested the deterrence was yet not strong enough to discourage Pakistan’s misadventures. Also, in the case of Balakot strikes, there were lingering doubts about the efficacy and legitimacy of such operations. Many had doubted if Balakot strikes would really be a durable solution to Pakistan’s terror project.
Credibility of surgical strikes as a deterrent was thrown in doubt with the Pahalgam attack right before which Pakistani army chief Asim Munir made a rabid speech signalling the forthcoming aggression. His remarks about Kashmir being Pakistan’s “jugular vein” signalled Pakistan’s intent to revive terror, which had gone down after the abrogation of Art. 370.Also Read: 25 minutes, 9 terror camps, 26 dead avenged! Inside India’s precision strike on Pakistan terror hubs
India’s red line is now darker and thicker
Operation Sindoor was bigger and far more intense than Balakot surgical strikes, which had targeted a single JeM training camp in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Operation Sindoor targeted multiple, geographically dispersed terror sites, including deep inside Pakistan’s Punjab at Bahawalpur and Muridke. The strikes this time also employed sophisticated precision munitions, including loitering drones. Security analyst Aadil Mir told ANI: “India has crossed two significant thresholds… striking multiple sites and targeting Pakistan’s heartland. This goes far beyond 2019.”
Operation Sindoor introduced wider spatial escalation; higher operational tempo as all the strikes happened in a brief period of time; and zero-intrusion strategy as India used standoff weapons, minimizing airspace breach and escalation risk.
While Pakistan had tried to dismiss Balakot strikes as pointless bombing without much damage which actually backfired on India as it downed an Indian jet and captured the pilot too, this time it seems to have submitted to India’s deterrence. Hours after the strikes, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said his country is ready to “wrap up” tensions with India if New Delhi de-escalates the situation, ostensibly overwhelmed by massive strikes, With Operation Sindoor, India has raised the cost of cross-border terrorism, expanded its military playbook, and sent a clear message to Pakistan that India can hit even deep inside Pakistan.
This time, India also played a deft diplomatic game. Just as it overwhelmed Pakistan with various retaliatory steps such as suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and bilateral trade, it also tried to convince the international community that a retaliatory surgical strike won’t be an unreasonable response and should be considered India’s legitimate action. Pakistan had failed to convince the UN Security Council that the Pahalgam attack had no link to terror groups it sponsors. Its missile tests were also seen as provocative and escalatory. India exhibited restraint and maturity by delaying the strikes and then not hitting military or civilian targets to avoid escalation.
For these reasons, Operation Sindoor has made India’s red line for Pakistan deeper and darker. Uri and Balakot strikes had formed a new doctrine of punitive deterrence; Operation Sindoor firmly established it.
(With inputs from TOI and agencies)
