2024 Emmys Talk Series & Scripted Variety Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Talk Series and Scripted Variety

Weekly Commentary (Updated: May 16, 2024): There have been multiple shake-ups in the talk series and scripted variety races.

The spicy chicken wing interview series “Hot Ones,” hosted by Sean Evans, has successfully petitioned to be included in the outstanding talk series category. On the other hand, once vying for a spot in scripted variety, Netflix’s “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA” has also been moved to compete in the talk series race. Both shows will face late-night hosts Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, Stephen Colbert, and Seth Meyers.

Moreover, the long dual-category conundrum of outstanding talk series and scripted variety is only worsening.

In December 2022, the Television Academy renamed and redefined the two categories to find synergy in submissions, nominees, and eventual winners. They defined them as: “Outstanding talk series, which will center on shows that focus on unscripted interviews or panel discussions between a host/hosts and guest celebrities or personalities” and outstanding scripted variety series, which focuses on programs that are primarily scripted or feature loosely scripted improv and consist of discrete scenes, musical numbers, monologues, comedy stand-ups, sketches, etc.

Last year, 19 series were entered for talk series, which invited five nominees to the ceremony. With the additions of Mulaney and “Hot Ones,” Variety is tracking 13, which includes late-night staples Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, and Jimmy Fallon. Per Emmy rules, that will produce three nominees in the category.

Regarding scripted variety, which had 12 submissions in 2023, bringing three shows to the lineup, we are currently tracking only five submissions: the aforementioned John Oliver and “SNL,” along with Netflix’s “The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman,” CBS’ “After Midnight” with Taylor Tomlinson and the now-canceled “Painting with John” from HBO/Max. Per nomination procedures, when categories have fewer than seven entries, the submissions will be screened by the appropriate peer group for a nomination; any entry that receives nine-tenths approval will receive a nomination. Think of it as a simple “up or down vote,” and then consider how difficult it can be to score 90% approval in anything. Last year, the approvals for the new guild contracts were 87% for DGA and 78% for SAG-AFTRA.

The rules further state, “If none of the nominations receives 90% approval, the nomination with the highest approval receives the Emmy.” If all fail to meet the threshold, last year’s winner, John Oliver, could receive an automatic statuette without any other nominees alongside him. The TV Academy has to figure this out.

Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” is coming off its first big win for former host Trevor Noah’s exit year, but now, there’s a new host every week. While many will point to the Emmy darling Jon Stewart’s return, he’s only featured once a week. Will members feel compelled to check the show off with his name on the title?

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.