War between Israel and Hamas: why the offensive on Rafah could only take place in several weeks
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
The Israeli Prime Minister assures him: an offensive on Rafah, where nearly a million and a half Palestinians, mainly refugees, are concentrated, will take place. The date has even been set, Benjamin Netanyahu swore. But given the realities on the ground, this will not happen for several weeks at least. With the withdrawal of the 98th Division from Khan Younes, announced on Sunday April 7 and which has already largely been achieved, the Israeli army no longer has the human and material resources necessary to launch a ground attack on the highly urbanized and very densely populated Rafah.
This withdrawal of Israeli forces should also allow Gazans displaced in Rafah to return home or transfer them to displaced persons camps, which remain to be built along the coast. It is also a sine qua non condition for a possible future assault on Rafah: that the population of the town has been evacuated. Israeli Army Radio on Monday predicted a 6-week break to do this.
The armed forces are expected to leave some elements of their 162nd Division on the ground, notably the Nahal Brigade and its 5 to 6,000 men who will take up positions around what is called the “Netzarim corridor”. This newly constructed axis cuts the Gaza Strip in two, from East to West, dividing it between Gaza City in the North, the center of the Khan Younes enclave and Rafah in the South.
The Nahal Brigade represents barely 15% of the volume of forces engaged at the height of the fighting. This does not mean that the shooting on the south of the enclave and in particular on Rafah will stop, but it will be more targeted shooting, operated by the aviation and primarily targeting the cadres of Hamas or Islamic Jihad, if they are spotted. Unless of course there is a ceasefire.
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