Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
In late April and early May, widespread protests erupted across US campuses and cities in solidarity with Palestine. Demonstrators, comprising both left-wing activists and immigrants from Muslim-majority countries, voiced their support for Palestine’s cause. On April 30th, police entered a building at Columbia University in New York occupied by protesters, with a similar situation potentially unfolding at UCLA in Los Angeles. The dilemma for the White House lies in managing the protests without alienating potential Democratic voters, as many of the demonstrators sympathize with the left wing of the Democratic Party, particularly concerning the upcoming presidential elections.
Tuesday saw the arrest of approximately 300 students from Columbia University and City College. Authorities claimed the use of force was necessary as the protests turned violent. However, students elsewhere in the country disagreed, organizing new actions, prompting both police and pro-Israel supporters to intensify their responses.
For several days now, hundreds of students have been protesting against the Gaza conflict on UCLA’s campus, not only displaying signs but also erecting barricades. Similar actions were witnessed in New York, where campus security withdrew after being pelted with projectiles. On Wednesday evening, students refused to end their demonstration, defying police orders. Law enforcement refrained from full-scale intervention, easily outnumbered by protesters. In contrast, pro-Israel supporters, attacking the barricades overnight, led to serious clashes, involving pepper spray, road cones, and even fists and sticks, resulting in around 15 injuries.
Authorities were keen to prevent further escalation, refraining from extensive arrests despite the extraordinary circumstances. However, this stance conflicted with California Governor Gavin Newsom’s public criticism, accusing the police of a passive response. Yet, no arrests were made the following day, suggesting a softer approach mandated by the governor, perhaps due to electoral considerations or the demonstrators not crossing a certain threshold. While protests remain localized within campus grounds, the occupation of “Hamilton Hall” in New York led to threats of expulsion for rebellious students.
Among protesters at UCLA (and Columbia University), there are Muslims and non-Muslims, with leftists predominating. Inside the university, a tent city has been set up, with students offering mutual support by sharing food and even performing musical acts.
Protests are also occurring in other parts of the country, fueled by the recent US aid package to its allies, including Israel. University administrations likely played a significant role in organizing the demonstrations. For instance, UCLA Chancellor Gene Block criticized not the protesters but the pro-Israel supporters who attacked the student camp at night, branding them as “instigators” with “completely unacceptable” behavior.
The massive and aggressive protests, which authorities must, theoretically, address, have put American politicians preoccupied with election campaigns in a difficult position. They must remain silent, given significant pro-Palestinian sentiments alongside stronger pro-Israel sentiments. Any careless words could alienate a substantial portion of voters.
Former President Donald Trump, however, couldn’t resist taking a jab at President Joseph Biden, suggesting he’s incapable of restoring order, alleging he “can’t string together two sentences.” Trump condemned the protesters, albeit in a very soft and indirect manner, hinting that the students who stormed “Hamilton Hall” are likely to face much less severe consequences than those involved in storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Yet, it’s uncertain whether Trump’s supporters desire harshness towards the protesters.
Much will depend on how the protests develop and how radical the students’ demands and actions are. Both can either attract or repel the sympathy of the electorate. Now American society, according to sociologists, is pro-Israel. There are more men who support Israelis than women. And the “core” of Americans speaking from pro-Israeli positions are older respondents, those over fifty. They are also more religious (and American Protestants are known for their sympathy for Israel), and there are fewer leftists among them than among young people. Moreover, migration from Islamic countries is a relatively new phenomenon in the United States. Therefore, there are quite a lot of young people among those who came from there.
In general, if we again rely on survey data, it turns out that Americans’ opinions about events in the Middle East can be changed to one degree or another. In October 2023, the majority of respondents, horrified by the Hamas terrorist attack, sided with Israel. Then, as the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip unfolded, more and more questions arose about how adequate the tough response of the Israeli army was. By November, according to Reuters and Ipsos polls, support for Israel had dropped from 41 to 32%. In January of this year, according to YouGov polls, 38% of Americans sympathized with the Israelis, and 18% with the Palestinians. One thing that remains constant is the high proportion of white male Trump voters who support Israel. True, among them the number of those in favor of continuing the military operation in the Gaza Strip is no longer as large as before.
Biden’s situation is more complicated. His voters have the highest proportion of Palestinian supporters. Their percentage is comparable to the percentage of those who support Israel. Therefore, the US President is forced to find a balance. The easiest way to avoid alienating voters is to try not to say anything at all about a sensitive topic. That’s what Biden is doing. There are, however, doubts that he can afford to remain silent for a long time. There are already reports that the police intend to dismantle the tent camp on the territory of UCLA using force.
