Donald Trump says he has done it again. He has managed to “solve” his 10th war, by his own count, this time between Israel and Lebanon.
No matter that he first started an 11th conflict that effectively triggered it. The ceasefire he announced on Truth Social came into effect just a few minutes after his announcement on Thursday night.
It is expected to be followed by historic talks between Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun.
But the shaky pause in fighting has apparently already been violated by Israel, according to the Lebanese army.
And it was supposed to already be in place, as part of a wider truce brokered by Pakistan between the US, Israel and Iran (Trump’s close ally Netanyahu chose to refute that).
It is set to hold for 10 days, enough time to bring the temperature down to allow talks for the regionally devastating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.
But will it?
The same fundamental, almost existential, differences continue.
It was brokered not between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, that Israel is fighting and wants disarmed and destroyed, but with the Lebanese government.
The comparatively new Lebanese technocratic government does contain Hezbollah political figures.
But it has even less power than before this round of fighting to completely disarm what is thought to be the most powerful and heavily armed non-state actor in the region, if not the world.
Despite the ceasefire, Netanyahu has also maintained that Israeli troops will continue to occupy what he calls a “buffer zone” 10km into Lebanese sovereign territory.
He claims that this is needed for the safety of Israeli communities in the north, bordering Lebanon, to be able to live there.
But this means hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians will not be able to go home. The fear is this is actually a permanent plan to expand Israel’s borders and they never will be able to regain – again a sticking point that will have to be battled out at the negotiating table.
