India has 190 nuclear warheads with potential to produce upto 225: Report
The US nonprofit policy think tank based its estimate on open-source information, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery. The assessment was published in an article titled “India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026” by Hans Kristensen, director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project.
“Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads,” the report said.
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FAS estimates India has more than 160 warheads for operational systems
According to the FAS assessment, more than 160 Indian nuclear warheads are associated with operational launchers, while additional warheads are intended for newer missile systems under production.
The report said India has continued to modernise its nuclear arsenal, with several new weapon systems fielded in recent years and more under development. These include nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems and sea-based platforms that could complement or replace existing systems.
“We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190,” the report said.FAS added that India’s warhead stockpile could grow as additional nuclear-capable delivery systems are developed.
Plutonium estimates leave room for a larger arsenal
The FAS assessment cited International Panel on Fissile Materials estimates that India had produced approximately 730 kg, plus or minus about 170 kg, of weapon-grade plutonium by the beginning of 2026.
Using an assumption of approximately four kilogrammes of plutonium per warhead, FAS said the material could theoretically be sufficient for between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads.
The report, however, noted that the calculation has several uncertainties, including the designs of the warheads India has developed and the amount of plutonium actually converted into assembled weapons.
“Regardless of the warhead designs, it is unlikely that India has used all its plutonium to produce warheads, and it may have kept some in reserve,” Kristensen wrote.
Bulletin highlights India’s HEU and plutonium production
A separate assessment published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said India is among a small number of countries believed to produce both highly enriched uranium (HEU) and weapons-grade plutonium.
According to the Bulletin, India’s HEU production is largely assumed to be directed towards fuel for its expanding fleet of nuclear-powered vessels and submarines. The assessment also identified the 100-megawatt Dhruva reactor at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre complex near Mumbai as India’s main source of weapons-grade plutonium, while noting that the CIRUS reactor at the same site served that purpose until 2010.
The Bulletin’s assessment also points to India’s newly operational Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam as a potential future source of additional fissile material. The 500-MWt reactor achieved first criticality in April 2026.
PFBR could increase future plutonium availability
The Bulletin said the PFBR is fuelled using reactor-grade plutonium separated from India’s first-generation power reactors and uses a uranium or thorium blanket to produce additional fissile material.
According to its assessment, if the reactor operated at 80% efficiency, it could hypothetically produce an estimated 140 kg of Plutonium-239 annually, an amount the publication said could be sufficient for up to 35 nuclear warheads. These are projections of potential material production rather than a statement that the reactor is producing weapons material or that such material is being converted into warheads.
The Indian Department of Atomic Energy confirmed that the 500 MWe PFBR at Kalpakkam achieved first criticality on April 6, 2026. The department describes the reactor as part of the second stage of India’s three-stage nuclear power programme.
The Bulletin also noted that additional fast breeder reactors are planned, including FBR-1 and FBR-2, which are proposed to be located near the PFBR at Kalpakkam. If successfully developed and operated, the publication said, these reactors could potentially increase the amount of plutonium available to India.
FAS flags uncertainty over advanced warhead designs
The FAS report also highlighted uncertainty about the sophistication of India’s nuclear warhead designs.
According to the assessment, India’s 1998 Pokhran-II tests reliably validated a fission design, while the country’s progress in boosted-fission and thermonuclear weapon designs remains uncertain.
That uncertainty complicates attempts to calculate India’s arsenal solely from estimates of available fissile material, since different warhead designs could require different quantities of nuclear material.
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India maintains no-first-use policy
India’s nuclear doctrine also includes its stated commitment to no first use.
India adopted the policy after the 1998 nuclear tests and has continued to maintain a position of credible minimum deterrence. The government recently told Parliament that India remains committed to “credible minimum deterrence” and a posture of “no first use” of nuclear weapons.
The FAS report noted that the size of India’s nuclear stockpile also depends on the number and types of launchers available to deliver the weapons.
It said India is unlikely to produce significantly more warheads than its delivery systems can accommodate, meaning that developments in nuclear-capable aircraft, missiles and submarines could influence the future size of the stockpile.
