If the Democrats win the midterms, a lot of people are going to prison
Laura Schwartz worked in Bill Clinton’s White House for eight years, ending up as Director of Events. She is now a US political commentator, currently focusing on the midterm Congressional elections on November 3.
Fitz: Laura, thank you for your time. You started working for Bill Clinton at just the age of 19 in 1993. Late in the evening when the wine’s flowing freely and you’re with your friends, what’s your best Bill Clinton war story? “I’ll never forget the time the president said to me …”
LS: [Laughs.] That’s going to have to be when we’re actually having martinis, and they’ll be great stories! But I was actually just thinking about something today, as Bill Clinton goes out on the trail for the first time for the midterms, down in Florida for the gubernatorial race. Back in 1996, after one of his debates against Republican nominee Bob Dole, I said to the president something about him running “against” Dole. And he said, “You know, Laura in a lot of ways, I’m running with Bob Dole because here’s the deal: he has different ideas and different solutions to solve the problems of the American people today than I have. But we both agree on what those problems are. I just feel like my ideas will be more effective and better than his.”
Fitz: This being an obvious contrast with today?
LS: Yes. President Clinton was such a policy wonk, and so was Bob Dole. But they were cordial to each other. Years later, Bob Dole said, “You know, Bill Clinton was my opponent, not my enemy.” And unfortunately, that’s not where we’re at right now. We’re not even at that point right now on state and local elections. It is much closer to enmity between political opponents.
Fitz: So you’ve made your way since as a very successful nonpartisan pundit. You’ve been with Fox News, CNN, CBS, BBC, ITV, and you were a regular guest and host on Larry King Live. Has it been difficult to remain nonpartisan in these fraught times when the schism between left and right looks more like the Grand Canyon?
LS: Absolutely, Peter, and I’ll tell you why. Ever since Trump came on the scene in 2016, with his divisive rhetoric – making fun of those with physical and mental disabilities, outright making fun of them on stage – that really tore into me as a human being. And that’s my problem with Donald Trump: there is no connection to the human condition to create an empathy that can lead you towards policies that can make an impact on those of all demographics, geographics, socioeconomics, and that’s what politics and politicking should be about.
Fitz: So how do you stay non-partisan?
LS: Personally, I’ve voted for both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. I try to just stick to explaining why politicians are saying what they’re saying, and how this could affect the American people, how this can affect the global condition. I try to change the conversation to policy.
Fitz: And yet in Australia, what I think a lot of us don’t understand is Trump’s staggering resilience. On a bad day, he can get through three things before lunch – “They’re eating the dogs!” “Quiet, piggy!” “Let them take out Los Angeles!” – that would sink any normal politician. And yet he barely blinks and more often than not, goes on to win. How the actual ruck?
LS: Yes, his resilience is just extraordinary. Looking back to his first presidential campaign in 2016, he really tapped into a piece of America that felt the Democratic elites were ruining their lives and not making them better. And they saw this guy from television, and they thought, well, he picks the winners on The Apprentice. This man flies in private planes and he’s wealthy. He knows how to run a business. He should run the United States of America. And then some realised how he actually filed for bankruptcy many times, he stiffed contractors and never paid them. It all starts coming out, but in the meantime, Donald Trump has created this MAGA movement, this “Make America Great Again” base and that really is a core 30 per cent.
Fitz: And they, in turn, have been remarkably resilient, pretty much staying with him?
LS: Yes, but I always say this: politics is a game of addition. The moment you start subtracting, you lose. And in recent times, in this second term, he’s begun losing some support from Republicans and independents, he has started to subtract. So I think right now, America is in three sections. A quarter are Democrats, a quarter are Republicans, but the largest piece of America right now are independents – often disillusioned with both major parties – and in 2024 they broke heavily for Trump, but right now they are breaking heavily the other way.
Fitz: All right, so in the midterms we’ve got 435 seats in the House of Reps up for grabs, and 35 seats in the Senate. The polls point to a blue wave of Democrat wins and maybe even a blue tsunami. And yet notoriously those polls have been terribly wrong before?
LS: I really appreciate polling, not as God’s given truth, but as a way to look at trends and trajectories for a campaign, it can tell you whether or not you have the right message, and it also can tell you if you’re delivering it in an effective way. But there is no doubt Trump is taking notice of those polls, whatever he says.
Fitz: Go on.
LS: Look at where he’s spending time and money. At this point in the campaign, Trump should be trying to widen the scope, but instead he’s going to reliable red Republican states to try to keep them and try to turn up the enthusiasm that’s not there. He’s going to states that he’s previously won by double digits, some of them by 20 points. And the other thing you have to look at is [how weak] the closing message of the president is…
Fitz: Yes…?
LS: Trump can tell them till they’re blue in the face at all these rallies that the economy is awesome, that America’s never been hotter than before. But it’s the voter who’s at the gas station spending over $100 to fill up their tank; and deciding how much they can spend at the grocery store; how they can pay their heating bill and the rent, that is going to have the most impact. It’s like if you’ve got a pain in your knee, and you go to the doctor, and the doctor says, “Oh, you’re just fine, you don’t hurt.” But you know you hurt, and so you will go shopping around for another doctor that’s going to listen to you, and I think that’s what’s happening in the electorate right now. So this is not a winning closing message for Trump. There are actually some good Republican candidates out there, state, local, and federal. But no matter if their message is trying to connect to that voter who wants to see costs lower or not, Trump’s voice is louder than theirs.
Fitz: Yet some of these polls are historically bad for a sitting president?
LS: CNN today has Democrats up by 10 points. A New York Times poll that came out tonight shows Democrats up by 11 points just on a generic ballot. But you also have to look at enthusiasm. Democrats have plus 17 points when it comes to enthusiasm. Still, the Democrats have to be incredibly careful at this moment, and especially if it is a blue wave or blue tsunami because here’s the other piece of this: it doesn’t mean that the Democrats are popular. Democrats have a 47 per cent unfavorable rating. Republicans have a 52 per cent unfavorable rating. So if there is a blue wave, this is not necessarily a vote for the Democrats. It’s a vote against Trump. If they do get control, they will have to actually do things.
Fitz: Earlier this year, Steve Bannon said if the Democrats win the midterms, “a lot of people in this room, including me, are going to prison.” Do you agree, or does Trump simply unleash a blizzard of pardons, or indeed a tsunami, including one pinned to his own forehead, saying: “Nyah, nyah, you can’t get me!” What do you think will happen?
LS: He’ll issue a lot of pardons. But that won’t be the end of the legal and investigative process. If the House goes Democrat, which I am certain it will, they will have investigative authority, but I hope they don’t launch impeachment proceedings because that turns people off. Bill Clinton actually won seats during his second term midterm election because the American people were happy with the economy and they were unhappy with the Republicans trying to impeach him on the Monica Lewinsky case, and so impeachment is not a winner. But they do want to see investigations.
Fitz: On what, specifically?
LS: They see corruption happening in government. They see President Trump and his family increasing their wealth by $US2.7 billion since he came into office while at the same time American families are falling behind. So I think the Democrats will have to be incredibly careful. They need to weigh every investigation. Fine, investigate Trump and investigate Donald Trump Jr’s investments with companies that are then given contracts by the Pentagon. But make sure that for every investigation you launch, you also put forth legislation to address the cost of living, and the shortage of healthcare in the country. That’s what they need to do. Otherwise, they’re going to get in there, and the American voter in two short years is going to be like, “Yeah, thanks. We gave you a try, and it didn’t work.” And then you’ve got the presidency up for grabs. So they’ve got to be really careful if they get in how they legislate.
Fitz: But for those not pardoned, will there be a lot of people actually going to prison?
LS: Bannon’s right. In fact, I’ve heard that there are some at the White House in the presidential circle who were going to leave at the midterms, but will stay. You know why? Because you get to use the government lawyers. Think of how much it costs to defend yourself! And there’s also stories of a lot of law firms being contacted, exploring representation to deal with what’s coming.
Fitz: What would it mean if the Democrats go well, for the Iran War and the Ukraine War?
LS: Well, I think that for the Iran War, they’ve already tried to invoke the War Powers Resolution, to curtail military intervention, but it was blocked by the Senate. So the Democrats would need to win both the House and the Senate to really do something on Iran. For Ukraine, I think there is a much bigger opportunity for the Democrats to strengthen the sanctions and also get the military support for the additional Patriot missiles that Ukraine so desperately needs. Congress might also launch an investigation into what happened with Elon Musk and his Starlink. They’ll want to know if the Wall Street Journal is right and Starlink slowed down the ability of Ukraine to defend themselves using the satellites. The Pentagon is Musk’s client, and so I think Congress will launch an investigation into that. That may be why Elon has dumped over a quarter of a billion dollars into the midterms – more than he did the presidential elections. The question becomes, how much influence does the richest man in the world have?
Fitz: My final question: You’re an American beneath the rocket’s red glare, the bombs bursting in air. Do you still have faith that your flag is still there, that America will go on? Do you believe that the democratic process will work its magic, and that America as we know it will recover?
LS: I retain that faith and optimism, and I do because we have already seen this country stretched in ways we never thought it could after January 6 and the insurrection, and we’ve come back from that. So that does give me faith in American democracy and in our institutions. And I also have to say that many of the Republican senators elected this time will feel less shackled by Donald Trump. They’ll be elected for six years, which is four years beyond when he’ll be gone and perhaps offer the checks that are at the core foundation of our country’s checks and balances. I think it will be restorative.
Fitz: Thank you for your time.
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Peter FitzSimons is a journalist and columnist with The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X.