Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on India in response to its oil purchases from Russia could prompt Delhi to set aside its longstanding rivalry with China and explore closer cooperation.
Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods on Wednesday, raising the total duty to 50 per cent — among the highest imposed on any U.S. trading partner. India criticised the move, calling it “unfair and unfortunate”.
Trump has said he will impose new sanctions on Russia as well as on countries that buy its energy exports, unless Moscow takes steps to end its three-and-a-half-year war with Ukraine. Russian president Vladimir Putin has shown no public sign of altering his stance despite the deadline.
It said it “will take all necessary steps to protect its national interests” and added that the purchases were driven by market factors and the energy needs of India’s 1.4 billion people.
Although India has been one of Washington’s key strategic partners in countering China’s dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, experts warn that the latest wave of U.S. tariffs could prompt Delhi and Beijing to seek closer ties.
Trump has also sought closer ties with Pakistan, repeatedly claiming credit for brokering a ceasefire between New Delhi and Islamabad, a claim rejected by the Indian government. Trump’s taunt that India could buy oil from arch enemy Pakistan has also not gone down well in New Delhi, two Indian government sources told Reuters.
The new tariffs were announced just as Indian prime minister Narendra Modi prepares for his first visit to China in over seven years, suggesting a potential realignment in alliances. Modi is scheduled to visit China, where leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will gather for the Summit in Tianjin from 31 August to 1 September.
India and China this year have sought to repair ties strained by the 2020 border skirmish between the two militaries. This year, both nations resumed the Mansarovar Yatra and ended the visa freeze for tourists.
In recent years, successive U.S. administrations, even Trump during his first tenure as president, have strategically deepened ties with India, but analysts believe the latest actions risk dragging the relationship to its lowest point since the US sanctioned India in 1998 over its nuclear tests.
Trump has been accused of selectively targeting India for purchasing Russian oil, whereas the EU continues to import liquefied natural gas from Russia.
The trade talks between India and the U.S. broke down after five rounds of negotiations over disagreement on opening India’s vast farm and dairy sectors and stopping Russian oil purchases. Trump has intensified his criticism of Delhi and Moscow, labelling them as “dead economies” in a social media post last week.
“The next round of negotiations between the trade teams in August will ask more of India, but the question is, what would India give? The U.S. side must also take into account India’s strategic importance as a China counterweight,” says Farwa Aamer, the director of South Asia Initiatives at Asia Society.
She adds: “If U.S.-India ties get strained further, it only helps China to maintain and expand its influence. It also makes a strong case for India to ensure that its own relations with China remain stable.”
India’s growing closeness to China has sounded alarm bells in the Republican party, with Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., warning Trump against burning the carefully crafted ties with New Delhi. “Don’t give China a pass and burn a relationship with a strong ally like India,” she writes on X.
