Benjamin Netanyahu does better than expected as Gadi Eisenkot seizes on exit polls
Updated ,first published
Tel Aviv: Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents have begun negotiating on how to force him from office after Israeli voters swung decisively away from his right-wing government, without awarding the bloc of Zionist parties enough seats to win power in their own right.
With neither the pro nor anti-Netanyahu bloc having a clear path to majority government, the result sets the stage for days, and possibly weeks, of horse-trading.
Netanyahu’s Likud outperformed many pre-election opinion surveys to emerge as Israel’s single biggest party after an energetic election-day effort to drive the party’s traditional conservative supporters to the polls.
A surge in voter turnout from Arab-Israeli voters has seen the two Arab party lists on track to win about 19 seats in the Israeli parliament, up from 10 in the last elections in 2022.
The initial exit poll from Israel’s Channel 12, one of the main networks, showed Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc scoring 52 seats, with Netanyahu’s bloc 50 and the Arab parties 18. A revised poll then placed Netanyahu’s group ahead on 52 seats, with Eisenkot’s falling to 49.
Sixty-one seats are required to form a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, although it is possible to serve in a minority government.
The projected results still mark a significant decline for Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, which won 64 seats in the most recent elections in 2022. That number rose to 68 over the course of the term.
But it is not the definitive repudiation that the anti-Netanyahu Zionist opposition had been hoping for in the first elections since the October 7 massacre of 2023.
Addressing supporters at a 3am rally, Netanyahu said his Likud Party had won the most seats and therefore a mandate to form “a strong right-wing national government”.
He said he would wait for “real results” before the outcome could be decided, but said Israel could not be led by a government supported by “Arab backing”.
Earlier, Eisenkot, the former military chief who emerged as Netanyahu’s top rival, seized on the forecast results to claim they showed voters wanted change, and said going back to elections would be a mistake.
“Netanyahu should retire from political life,” he said in a statement to supporters.
“The initial exit poll results indicate a total vote of no confidence in Netanyahu and his October 7 government by the Zionist majority and the majority of Israel’s citizens,” Eisenkot said.
“If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel’s civic-minded Zionist majority.
“I will act immediately to implement the people’s verdict, replace Netanyahu’s government, and form a Zionist government committed to military conscription as soon as possible.”
If no leader can form a government, Israelis will return to elections again, as happened repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett said: “We will do everything, without ego, to establish a Zionist Alliance of Servants government, a government of doers, that will manage the country responsibly and serve all the People of Israel!”
United Arab List chairman Mansour Abbas said he hoped the opposition bloc and his party would secure a majority and oust Netanyahu.
“I hope that the numbers will work out and we, the Bloc of Change and the UAL, can ensure that there are 61 Knesset seats,” he said.
Avigdor Lieberman, head of the secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, told supporters the final results could still change as hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots cast by on-duty soldiers are counted in the coming days.
He said it was unlikely many soldiers would support ultra-Orthodox parties, key Netanyahu allies or the Arab parties, and there will be a “much clearer picture” later this week.
Lieberman is a fierce adversary of Netanyahu, but he has also said he will not sit in a government that includes Arab parties.
Dan Shapiro, a former United States ambassador to Israel, said Netanyahu “has no path to a government”.
“Eisenkot’s bloc does, working with the Arab parties who appear likely to receive a record 17-18 seats,” he said on social media.
“Israeli democracy has created this important opportunity for change.”
Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz said the world faced a “dangerous situation” as Netanyahu could seek a confrontation with Iran to try to stay in power.
“This is a very plausible scenario and one that should not be underestimated,” he said.
“The concern is not simply that Netanyahu might exploit another war for political future.
“It is that his inability to form a government, combined with his determination to remain prime minister, could create a powerful incentive to initiate or escalate a confrontation with Iran.”
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