Cost of living and corruption are top issues for voters who are deeply unhappy with Trump: AP Voter Poll
Although President Donald Trump is not on the ballot this Election Day, he has consistently urged the electorate to act as if he were. Indications suggest Tuesday’s midterms will indeed serve largely as a referendum on his performance over the past two years.
Historical precedent, polling, and early voting figures point to a potentially difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map and redistricting could cap Democratic gains.
Voters are seeking change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which indicates nearly three-quarters feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the country’s current direction. Most blame the administration for high inflation, with about 6 in 10 stating elevated prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
Additionally, roughly 70% of voters want Congress to offer stronger checks and balances on the presidency.
Democrats hope to capture majorities in the House and Senate to curb Trump’s authority after two years of minimal pushback from a compliant Republican-led Congress. Key gubernatorial races are also being decided.
More than 59 million Americans cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday, with many more expected at polling places. Amid concerns from watchdog organizations that Trump and his allies might disrupt the process, Democrats and nonpartisan groups have deployed tens of thousands of trained volunteers to observe voting locations.
Here’s what we’re watching Tuesday:
The Republican president is trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.
Democrats certainly hope that’s the case this year. The party is optimistic, given Trump’s dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.
The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of the electorate, suggests most are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.
About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while 3 in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.
Trump is betting that his base of white working-class voters, which fueled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, can save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers. Heading into Election Day, however, there are signs that Democrats are more fired up to vote against him and his party.
We’re about to learn whether Trump and his coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown. Specifically, look to see whether Hispanic and Black voters and younger people who swung toward Trump two years ago now rebuke him.
The answer will have huge implications in the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
