Autism explosion: Diagnoses have risen tenfold since 2010… but experts are divided over what’s driving the surge in young women
Diagnoses of adult autism have rocketed tenfold in Britain since 2010, one of the largest studies of its kind has found.
Researchers say the trend is largely being driven by young women who also have conditions like ADHD, anxiety and depression.
They also found that cases ‘increased rapidly’ in the UK after 2020.
Some experts say this suggests the trend is being driven by ‘cultural changes’ surrounding the definition of autism.
But others argue that it can be explained by a greater recognition and understanding of the neurodevelopmental condition.
The study, published in BMJ Mental Health, analysed health records from more than 33 million adults in the UK and Sweden between 2010 and 2023.
Of those, more than 24.5 million were from the UK.
By the end of the study, 241,936 people had an autism diagnosis: 141,119 in the UK and 100,817 in Sweden.
Diagnoses of adult autism have rocketed ten-fold in Britain since 2010, one of the largest studies of its kind has found
Experts from several British universities and Sweden’s prestigious Karolinska Institute said they wanted to understand why diagnoses have surged in recent times.
The researchers compared the differences in the type of people receiving a diagnosis between 2010 and 2023.
This included their age, gender and history of conditions like ADHD, anxiety and depression – conditions strongly linked to autism.
The study used a method known as ‘person-years’, which tracks how often new diagnoses occur over time.
Using this method, the rate of new autism diagnoses rose from 0.6 to 6.4 per 10,000 person-years between 2010 and 2023, a ten-fold increase.
This equates to fewer than one in every 10,000 adults receiving a new autism diagnosis at the start of the study period, rising to more than six in every 10,000 by the end.
In addition, around 4 per cent of 16 to 20-year-olds in the UK had a diagnosis, said the researchers, a figure higher than previous estimates.
The research also found that diagnoses among women increased.
Newly diagnosed adults were also far more likely to have a history of mental health conditions.
In the UK, those diagnosed with autism with a previous diagnosis of anxiety rose from around 29 per cent in 2010 to 58 per cent in 2023.
Rates of depression and ADHD among the newly diagnosed also increased.
Strikingly, conditions traditionally linked to autism became less common among those newly diagnosed.
The proportion with a previous diagnosis of epilepsy fell from around 10 per cent to 4 per cent, while intellectual disability also became less common.
Researchers said the characteristics of adults receiving a diagnosis had ‘changed dramatically’ since 2010.
Experts not involved in the study said the findings provide ‘further evidence’ of differences between autism diagnosed in childhood and in adulthood.
Autism research pioneer Professor Dame Uta Frith, emeritus professor of cognitive development at University College London, said: ‘New findings emerging from this study suggest that the late diagnosed group has distinct demographics, which may provide clues to the causes for its rise.
‘They hint at cultural changes in the meaning and use of the autism label rather than biological changes.’
Others said the study showed medics are now better at detecting autism in women.
‘Essentially, the study shows how diagnostic practices have changed,’ said Dr Rachel Moseley, principal academic in psychology at Bournemouth University.
‘But it does not tell us that autism is overdiagnosed or that these diagnostic changes are a bad thing, as the authors acknowledge.’
The researchers themselves suggested the rise could reflect better recognition, awareness and discussion of autism, as well as changes in diagnostic practice.
Just last month, Professor Frith told the Daily Mail that the rise in ADHD and autism diagnoses was being fuelled by the ‘marketing strategies’ of private clinics that convince Britons that they have a disorder for profit.
Alongside clinical psychologist Dr Naomi Fisher, she warned of a ‘wild west’ of private providers, accusing them of ‘exploiting’ vulnerable adults who are seeking ‘self-understanding’ and ‘identity’.
But Dr Hannah Bowers, a behavioural scientist at the University of Southampton, stressed that many autistic people genuinely need a diagnosis to get adequate care.
‘In our own research, autistic adults have described their mental health difficulties as intertwined with their autism and that this makes getting support really challenging,’ she said.
