Midterm bloodbath looms for the GOP: Democrats storm to an 8-point lead as Trump’s Iran war and prices bite

Democrats head into the 2026 midterms with an 8-point lead over Republicans on the generic ballot as anger over the cost of living and President Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran war weighs on voters.

The exclusive August Daily Mail/JL Partners survey found that 50 percent of likely voters would back the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, compared with 42 percent for the Republican. 

Just seven percent are undecided.

Democrats need to capture five Republican seats to take the House majority. In the Senate, they need to flip four.  

The enthusiasm in voters of both parties is nearly equal but the economy is the clearest warning light for Republicans. 

Thirty-seven percent of voters say they are financially worse off than a year ago, and higher prices are forcing Americans to cut back.

Eating out has taken the biggest hit, with 51 percent reducing spending at restaurants. Another 42 percent have cut back on groceries, a third on clothing, and more than a quarter say they are driving less.

Voters are holding Trump responsible. Sixty-three percent say he is not doing enough to bring down the cost of living, against just 24 percent who say he is. 

Asked which party they trust to lower household costs, the Democrats own a 9-point advantage.

The economic pressure comes as Americans continue to confront high everyday expenses, making affordability likely to remain a central issue as the midterms approach.

Voters are also being asked to weigh another major issue playing on the economic hardships: Trump’s military campaign against Iran.

The survey finds that 49 percent believe launching military action against Iran was the wrong thing to do, compared with 30 percent who say it was the right decision.

Twenty-one percent are unsure.

Republicans are far more supportive, with 65 percent saying the military action was the right thing to do.

The conflict is also the issue Americans most frequently identify as Trump’s biggest blunder. Offered a list of options, 18 percent select the war with Iran, while 11 percent point to his handling of the cost of living.

The findings come as the conflict has once again erupted into open confrontation.

The US launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and firing eight missiles toward US forces in Jordan.

The strikes followed a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran that effectively broke down, while two Saudi oil tankers were also struck by projectiles as they left the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night.

Trump warned Tehran on Tuesday that any retaliation would bring an even more forceful American response.

The poll suggests many Americans remain unconvinced that the military campaign is succeeding.

Just 25 percent say Trump and the United States are currently winning the war, compared with 17 percent who believe Iran is winning and four percent who say Israel is. The largest group, 35 percent, says neither side is winning, while another 20 percent are unsure.

Republicans are considerably more confident in Trump’s handling of the conflict. Fifty-two percent believe Trump and the US are winning, compared with just seven percent who say Iran is winning.

Among Democrats, only 11 percent believe Trump and the US are winning, while 25 percent say Iran is winning. Forty-four percent believe neither side is winning.

There is similarly deep uncertainty over who controls the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Overall, 22 percent of Americans believe the United States is in control, compared with 25 percent who say Iran is. Thirty-two percent believe neither side is fully in control, while 21 percent are unsure.

The partisan divide is stark.

Thirty-five percent of Democrats believe Iran controls the strait, compared with just 13 percent who say the United States does. Among Republicans, 42 percent believe the US is in control, while only 14 percent say Iran is.

Americans also appear reluctant to accept greater US military involvement if it comes with higher costs at home.

Forty-six percent say they would rather pay $5 for gasoline than see the United States send more troops to Iran. Just 22 percent would choose sending additional troops, while 32 percent are unsure.

Republicans are almost evenly split, with 38 percent choosing higher gas prices and 39 percent preferring more troops.

The polling presents a potentially difficult landscape for Republicans heading into November, with Democrats holding an eight-point advantage on the congressional ballot among likely voters.

Independents are the warning sign. Just 42 percent say they are very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, more than 20 points below both Republicans and Democrats, and almost a quarter remain undecided on which party to back — leaving a bloc of persuadable voters still in play.

At the same time, concerns over household costs and the increasingly volatile conflict with Iran give voters two major issues on which to judge the Trump administration.

With months still to go before the midterms, those numbers could change. 

But for now, Democrats are entering the campaign with the stronger position — while Republicans face growing pressure to convince voters they are better off and that the administration’s approach to Iran is working.