Rebuilding devastated Gaza after two years of war is a monumental task. Who is going to pay for it?
Two weeks ago, a US-brokered ceasefire agreement came into effect in Gaza with Donald Trump declaring peace in the Middle East.
A fortnight on and the armistice, though fragile, remains in place. Senior Trump administration officials have been keen to eulogise the merits of the president’s gilded Pax Americana, while rushing to Israel this week to ensure it holds.
But as Hamas, Israel and the United States work through the finer details of the agreement, the futures of millions of people still remain unclear.
In the immediate future, the priority will be to bring aid into Gaza, as well as the basic infrastructure needed for power, the desalination of water, and the running of public services. Only then can the wider challenge of rebuilding begin in earnest.
The task is enormous, with an estimated 10 per cent of the population having been either killed or injured, according to the Palestinian health ministry, and some 90 per cent of homes estimated to have been damaged or destroyed.
But as he left Israel on Thursday this week, US Vice President JD Vance was optimistic about the timeline. Palestinians could begin again in a “Hamas-free zone” within a matter of months, he said, and claimed Rafah could be rebuilt in ‘two to three years’.
Gaza’s economy is in ruins. Its government – until now responsible for some 30,000 civil servants – is due to disarm and release its grip on power under a proposal set out by Trump and partially agreed by Hamas. Efforts to rebuild will require years, if not decades, of steady support from external stakeholders.
Hamas is ultimately expected to make way for “the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee”, responsible for delivering the “day-to-day running of public services and municipalities”. The plan makes reference to “qualified Palestinians” and “international experts”, but detail is light on who they might be.
In time, the hope is that a reformed Palestinian Authority will be able to “effectively take back control” of Gaza – though this remains controversial among Palestinians and Israeli politicians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Vance this week Israel would not agree to the PA’s involvement unless it undergoes “fundamental” reforms.
In the interim, a committee would be overseen by an international “Board of Peace” tasked with creating “modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment”.
Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war and reorganise the governance of Gaza is light on detail. But it does provide some clues in the shape of a ‘Trump economic development plan’ to “rebuild and energise Gaza” with help from a panel of “experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East”. The “thoughtful investment proposals” of “well-meaning international groups” will be factored in for consideration, too.
The reference to ‘modern miracle states’ gives some indication of who the key stakeholders may be.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British ambassador and UN coordinator, told The Independent that the “obvious donor candidates” would be the oil-rich Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
“The US will also want a stake in this and will no doubt contribute,” he said. “Plus, I imagine, the UK, Canada and Australia.” Others, like Egypt, Jordan and Indonesia, may have some role in training for Palestinians or supplying personnel for the International Stabilization Force.
