State pension set to rise by 4.7% next year under triple lock

Pensioners are set for a boost from April next year, with the state pension looking set to rise by more than £560 a year.

That’s because of the rules around the state pension triple lock and how recent economic data sets out the likelihood of a rise.

At present, increases to the state pension are decided by either inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent – whichever is the highest. That is to ensure pensioners’ income doesn’t leave them trailing as living costs continue to increase – though with people living longer and the pension bill escalating rapidly, change is likely to come in the future.

The latest employment data released by the ONS shows the UK job market continuing to cool, with unemployment holding firm at 4.7 per cent and wage growth slowing to 4.7 per cent – one of the three factors dictating state pension payment changes.

How much is the state pension and how much will it go up?

We now only await September’s inflation rate – announced mid-October – as the last piece of the puzzle to determine the exact increase in the state pension.

However, the likelihood of it outstripping 4.7 per cent wage growth is minimal, given expectations are of it to be around the 4.0 per cent mark.

Right now, the full new state pension is £230.25 a week, or £11,973 per year.

A 4.7 per cent increase, then, means £241.05 a week – giving £561 more per year, totalling about £12,534 for those who get a full new state pension.

Those on the old basic state pension will not get the full rise, as part of it only rises along with inflation.

Will I need to pay tax?

An important point to note is that with that rise in state pension income comes another dilemma for those receiving it: the potential for paying taxes they didn’t previously need to.

A full state pension of £12,534 would fill up 99.7 per cent of each individual’s personal allowance, data from Standard Life shows.

“The planned uplift will be some comfort for pensioners grappling with rising bills and the lingering effect of inflation on everyday essentials,” said Mike Ambery, retirement savings director at Standard Life.

“However, a full new state pension will also be over 99 per cent of the personal allowance, currently frozen at £12,570 until 2028 – by contrast, in 2021/22 the new state pension was equivalent to 74 per cent of the allowance. This means pensioners will need just £35.40 of other income before paying income tax.

“The personal allowance rose fairly rapidly as a percentage of average earnings in the just over a decade before 2020, from 23.61 per cent in the 2007/08 tax year to just under 45 per cent in 2020. Since 2020, a combination of freezes and inflation has seen this decline, meaning a greater percentage of income is taxable.

“For pensioners paying the higher rate of tax, the value of the £561.60 rise will be eroded to around £337.”

Will the triple lock stay?

The upcoming rise means the triple lock is likely to come under increasing scrutiny in political circles, while calls to raise the personal allowance will also resume.

Pat McFadden, the new Work and Pensions Secretary, today confirmed that the pensions Triple Lock promise will be honoured.

“This Labour government is committed to maintaining the triple lock for the course of this parliament. It is estimated that will mean a rise in the state pension of around £1,900 a year by the end of the parliament,” he said.

“That’s a commitment from the Labour government to the UK’s pensioners. It’s something that we said we’d do at the election and something that we will keep to.”

That comes at a difficult time for the chancellor to balance another argument ahead of the Budget, explained Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell.

“This puts the state pension above £12,000 for the first time ever and perilously close to the frozen personal allowance,” said Ms Vahey.

“This poses a significant conundrum for Rachel Reeves and the Treasury. If, as is likely, the triple lock sees the state pension increase above the personal allowance of £12,570 in April 2027 for the first time, then the government will come under increasing pressure to make a decision regarding either the personal allowance or whether it can sustain the triple lock as it has promised at least to the end of this parliament.

“Removing the freeze on the personal allowance would come at significant cost to the Treasury at a time when the chancellor’s fiscal headroom is already strained at best, while an overhaul of the triple lock would come with huge political risk before the next general election. Needless to say, it’s a headache Starmer and Reeves could do without ahead of a crucial Budget in November, and economic and political pressure already beginning to swell both within the Labour Party and outside of it.”

The standard Personal Allowance is £12,570, which is the amount of income you do not have to pay tax on, the government website notes.

Beyond that figure, the basic tax rate would apply. That includes income from property, dividends, earnings or elsewhere.

It’s important to remember the tax would only be paid on the portion of income above the personal allowance threshold, not the entire amount.

The numbers apply to the new state pension rather than the basic state pension, which is for those born before 1951 (men) or 1953 (women).

“The Bank of England expects inflation to ease in the coming months, so that by the time we get to the state pension rise in April next year, this increase might be well ahead of annual price rises at the time,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown recently.

“Of course, this is only part of the picture. Inflation has been particularly focused on household bills and food prices, which pensioners on lower incomes spend a larger proportion of their income on. It means many of those who rely heavily on the state pension will be holding their breath for the rise in the spring.”