There could be no Atlantic hurricanes this year – but there’s a catch
Forecasters say it’s possible that the U.S. may not see any Atlantic hurricanes this season, potentially breaking a century-old record.
The last time that happened was in 1914 and it has never happened again during the satellite era, AccuWeather said Thursday.
So why is this year any different?
Years with El Niño climate patterns typically suppress Atlantic hurricane formation – and this year is expected to potentially be the most intense El Niño to date.
“Given the potentially record-setting El Niño conditions and the wind shear generated by it, it is possible for there to be no hurricanes through the remainder of the season,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski wrote on Wednesday. “Conditions will be evaluated over the basin through the remainder of the season.”
There’s still time until the season’s November 30 end, of course.
This week marks the season’s peak, with only five tropical storms – storms that brought flooding across the Gulf Coast – recorded since its June 1 start.
That’s much lower than the historical average of nine tropical storms and four hurricanes typically seen by mid-September, AccuWeather notes, as well as the National Hurricane Center’s August prediction of 7-13 named storms and 2-6 hurricanes.
But El Niño has been continuing to strengthen, and will until its peak in the winter.
Still, even if there are hurricanes later in the season, a record could be broken.
If no hurricanes form through Friday, it would break the record of the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
The previous record of September 11 was set in 2002 and again in 2013.
Right now, AccuWeather meteorologists say they still expect between 8-11 storms and 3-4 hurricanes.
“If there is going to be an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic for the balance of the season, it is likely to be during late September to early October,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
